Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge Challenge League prediction

Our model says: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–0 Étoile Carouge

The model makes it 44% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 29% draw, 27% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.38, Étoile Carouge 0.97.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Neuchatel Xamax FC's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and Étoile Carouge's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th on 17 points from 13 games; Étoile Carouge are 7th on 14 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Neuchatel Xamax FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Yverdon Sport.
  • Étoile Carouge are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Winterthur.
  • Last 6 meetings: Neuchatel Xamax FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Étoile Carouge 0–1 Neuchatel Xamax FC.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge

47%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Neuchatel Xamax FC win Draw Étoile Carouge win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–19%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Neuchatel Xamax FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Neuchatel Xamax FC at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Challenge League

  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport8 November 2026
  • L1-3FC Aarau30 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy23 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
  • L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026

Étoile Carouge

Challenge League

  • D2-2away to FC Winterthur7 November 2026
  • D2-2SC Kriens30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Aarau24 October 2026
  • L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Neuchatel Xamax FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Étoile Carouge scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Neuchatel Xamax FC135261620-417
7Étoile Carouge133551419-514

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 47%
Draw 29%
Defeat 17%

Étoile Carouge

Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today

Win 11%
Draw 2%
Defeat <1%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge

  • 7 August 2026Étoile Carouge 0–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 11 May 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
  • 13 February 2026Étoile Carouge 1–3 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 17 October 2025Étoile Carouge 0–2 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
  • 22 August 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
  • 9 May 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Neuchatel Xamax FC Étoile Carouge
0.42 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.4
2.01 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.02
1.38 Model expected goals (this match) 0.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Neuchatel Xamax FC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC against 0.97 for Étoile Carouge. Neuchatel Xamax FC's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.02 for Étoile Carouge.

How the model reaches 44% for Neuchatel Xamax FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neuchatel Xamax FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings add 1 point and Étoile Carouge's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings43%+1
  5. Étoile Carouge's ratings44%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Neuchatel Xamax FCÉtoile Carouge
13Matches13
5W 2D 6LRecord3W 5D 5L
16 1.2 per gameGoals scored14 1.1 per game
20 1.5 per gameGoals conceded19 1.5 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
4 of 13Failed to score5 of 13
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 3
25 1.9 per gameYellow cards24 1.8 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-1-4-1 1×

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home · Étoile Carouge away

6Played6
2W 0D 4LRecord1W 3D 2L
9–12Goals for – against6–11
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Neuchatel Xamax FC 13, Étoile Carouge 13.

Neuchatel Xamax FC scored 235223
Étoile Carouge conceded 442334

Neuchatel Xamax FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Étoile Carouge have let in 2 there.

Étoile Carouge scored 122322
Neuchatel Xamax FC conceded 352153

Étoile Carouge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Neuchatel Xamax FC have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Neuchatel Xamax FC

  • vs Stade Nyonnais28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 59%
  • at Rapperswil6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 33%
  • vs FC WIL 190013 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
  • at SC Kriens19 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%

Étoile Carouge

  • vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
  • at FC WIL 19006 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Stade Nyonnais11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 57%
  • at Rapperswil18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.