Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 19:15 UTC

Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur Challenge League prediction

Stade Municipal, Yverdon-les-Bains

Our model says: Yverdon Sport 1–0 FC Winterthur

The model makes it 41% Yverdon Sport, 28% draw, 31% FC Winterthur — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Yverdon Sport 1.51, FC Winterthur 1.23.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Yverdon Sport's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and FC Winterthur's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Yverdon Sport are 3rd on 23 points from 13 games; FC Winterthur are 2nd on 25 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Yverdon Sport have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Neuchatel Xamax FC.
  • FC Winterthur are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Étoile Carouge.
  • Last 6 meetings: Yverdon Sport 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended FC Winterthur 2–2 Yverdon Sport.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur

56%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Yverdon Sport win Draw FC Winterthur win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read Yverdon Sport first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Yverdon Sport at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur

Yverdon Sport

Challenge League

  • D0-0Neuchatel Xamax FC8 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy30 October 2026
  • W5-2SC Kriens25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Étoile Carouge9 October 2026
  • D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026

FC Winterthur

Challenge League

  • D2-2Étoile Carouge7 November 2026
  • W3-0away to FC WIL 19001 November 2026
  • W4-0Stade Nyonnais23 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
  • FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Yverdon Sport136522314+923
2FC Winterthur137422813+1525

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Yverdon Sport

Chance to win the league · 2% today

Win 3%
Draw <1%
Defeat 0%

FC Winterthur

Chance to win the league · 5% today

Win 10%
Draw 5%
Defeat 2%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur

  • 24 July 2026FC Winterthur 2–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
  • 17 May 2025FC Winterthur 2–2 Yverdon SportSuper League
  • 8 March 2025Yverdon Sport 2–1 FC WinterthurSuper League
  • 2 February 2025Yverdon Sport 3–0 FC WinterthurSuper League
  • 4 August 2024FC Winterthur 0–0 Yverdon SportSuper League
  • 3 March 2024FC Winterthur 2–1 Yverdon SportSuper League

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Winterthur (second, with Yverdon Sport third), while our numbers lean to Yverdon Sport. Yverdon Sport rate 0.56 in attack and 1.76 in defence, FC Winterthur 0.58 and 1.66 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Yverdon Sport a 1.6% chance of the title and FC Winterthur 5.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Yverdon Sport v FC Winterthur has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Yverdon Sport's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Yverdon Sport win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. FC Winterthur win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Yverdon Sport FC Winterthur
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
1.76 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66
1.51 Model expected goals (this match) 1.23

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Yverdon Sport the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Yverdon Sport against 1.23 for FC Winterthur. Yverdon Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.66 for FC Winterthur.

Yverdon Sport carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.32 for FC Winterthur. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Yverdon Sport to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Yverdon Sport to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Yverdon Sport's ratings take away 1 point and FC Winterthur's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Yverdon Sport's ratings43%−1
  4. FC Winterthur's ratings41%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Yverdon SportFC Winterthur
13Matches13
6W 5D 2LRecord7W 4D 2L
23 1.8 per gameGoals scored28 2.2 per game
14 1.1 per gameGoals conceded13 1.0 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets6 of 13
3 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored6 of 6
26 2.0 per gameYellow cards21 1.6 per game
2Red cards1
3-5-1-1 1×Usual shape4-2-3-1 1×

Yverdon Sport at home · FC Winterthur away

7Played6
3W 4D 0LRecord3W 1D 2L
13–6Goals for – against8–7
2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Yverdon Sport 13, FC Winterthur 13.

Yverdon Sport scored 425245
FC Winterthur conceded 222331
FC Winterthur scored 565434
Yverdon Sport conceded 203442

FC Winterthur score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Yverdon Sport have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Yverdon Sport

  • at FC WIL 190028 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 41%
  • at FC Aarau5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 38%
  • vs Rapperswil13 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 62%
  • at Stade Nyonnais18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 55%

FC Winterthur

  • vs Rapperswil27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 64%
  • at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
  • vs SC Kriens12 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 55%
  • at FC Aarau18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.