Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens Challenge League prediction

Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne

Our model says: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 SC Kriens

The model makes it 57% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 25% draw, 18% SC Kriens — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.85, SC Kriens 0.83.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and SC Kriens's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 31 points from 13 games; SC Kriens are 4th on 19 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-1 win away to Stade Nyonnais.
  • SC Kriens have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rapperswil.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended SC Kriens 0–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens

48%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win Draw SC Kriens win
  1. 1–012%
  2. 2–012%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Stade Lausanne-Ouchy first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Challenge League

  • W5-1away to Stade Nyonnais6 November 2026
  • W3-2Yverdon Sport30 October 2026
  • D0-0Neuchatel Xamax FC23 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026

SC Kriens

Challenge League

  • W1-0Rapperswil6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Étoile Carouge30 October 2026
  • L2-5away to Yverdon Sport25 October 2026
  • D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
  • W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • SC Kriens scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • SC Kriens conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for SC Kriens.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy13940286+2231
4SC Kriens135442219+319

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Chance to win the league · 93% today

Win 97%
Draw 91%
Defeat 82%

SC Kriens

Chance to finish in the top four · 55% today

Win 74%
Draw 60%
Defeat 47%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens

  • 4 September 2026SC Kriens 0–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 30 April 2022SC Kriens 2–1 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 11 February 2022Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–1 SC KriensChallenge League
  • 30 October 2021SC Kriens 1–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
  • 25 September 2021Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 5–0 SC KriensChallenge League
  • 30 April 2021Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–2 SC KriensChallenge League

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 93.1% chance of the title and SC Kriens 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v SC Kriens has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win57%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. SC Kriens win18%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy SC Kriens
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.41 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.07
1.85 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 0.83 for SC Kriens. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.07 for SC Kriens.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.13 for SC Kriens.

How the model reaches 57% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings add 6 points and SC Kriens's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 57%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings49%+6
  5. SC Kriens's ratings57%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Stade Lausanne-OuchySC Kriens
13Matches13
9W 4D 0LRecord5W 4D 4L
28 2.2 per gameGoals scored22 1.7 per game
6 0.5 per gameGoals conceded19 1.5 per game
8 of 13Clean sheets4 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
7 of 7Penalties scored2 of 2
37 2.8 per gameYellow cards34 2.6 per game
2Red cards0
3-4-2-1 1×Usual shape4-2-3-1 1×

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home · SC Kriens away

6Played6
5W 1D 0LRecord1W 3D 2L
14–2Goals for – against11–13
5 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 13, SC Kriens 13.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy scored 373635
SC Kriens conceded 353061

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); SC Kriens have let in 5 there.

SC Kriens scored 425273
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy conceded 201201

SC Kriens score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

  • at Étoile Carouge27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 44%
  • vs FC Winterthur5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%
  • vs FC Aarau11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 59%
  • at FC WIL 190018 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%

SC Kriens

  • vs FC Aarau27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
  • at Stade Nyonnais4 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
  • at FC Winterthur12 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 20%
  • vs Neuchatel Xamax FC19 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.