FC Winterthur
vs
Rapperswil
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC Winterthur 2–0 Rapperswil
The model makes it 64% FC Winterthur, 21% draw, 15% Rapperswil — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FC Winterthur 2.36, Rapperswil 0.88.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Winterthur are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. FC Winterthur's rating is built from 13 Challenge League matches and Rapperswil's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Winterthur are 2nd on 25 points from 13 games; Rapperswil are 9th on 11 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
- FC Winterthur are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Étoile Carouge.
- Rapperswil are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to SC Kriens.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Winterthur 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Rapperswil 0–2 FC Winterthur.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil
Has the model earned this number?
FC Winterthur at 64%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil
FC Winterthur
Challenge League
- D2-2Étoile Carouge7 November 2026
- W3-0away to FC WIL 19001 November 2026
- W4-0Stade Nyonnais23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
Rapperswil
Challenge League
- L0-1away to SC Kriens6 November 2026
- L1-4Stade Nyonnais30 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC WIL 190023 October 2026
- L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
- FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapperswil failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapperswil conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rapperswil had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 9 | Rapperswil | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil
- 21 August 2026Rapperswil 0–2 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 28 June 2024FC Winterthur 3–2 RapperswilFriendlies Clubs
- 16 January 2024FC Winterthur 4–0 RapperswilFriendlies Clubs
- 17 January 2023Rapperswil 0–2 FC WinterthurFriendlies Clubs
- 23 May 2019Rapperswil 1–4 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 20 February 2019FC Winterthur 2–0 RapperswilChallenge League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Winterthur a 5.3% chance of the title and Rapperswil 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Winterthur the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for FC Winterthur against 0.88 for Rapperswil. FC Winterthur's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.5 for Rapperswil.
How the model reaches 64% for FC Winterthur to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Winterthur to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Winterthur's ratings add 9 points and Rapperswil's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- FC Winterthur's ratings54%+9
- Rapperswil's ratings64%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Winterthur at home · Rapperswil away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC Winterthur 13, Rapperswil 13.
FC Winterthur score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Rapperswil have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Winterthur
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
- vs SC Kriens12 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 55%
- at FC Aarau18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 40%
Rapperswil
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 39%
- at Yverdon Sport13 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs Étoile Carouge18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.