Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Rapperswil vs FC Aarau Challenge League prediction

Rapperswil-Jona

Our model says: Rapperswil 2–1 FC Aarau

The model makes it 39% Rapperswil, 26% draw, 35% FC Aarau — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Rapperswil 1.63, FC Aarau 1.54.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Rapperswil's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and FC Aarau's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Rapperswil are 9th on 11 points from 13 games; FC Aarau are 6th on 15 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
  • Rapperswil are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to SC Kriens.
  • FC Aarau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to FC WIL 1900.
  • Last 5 meetings: FC Aarau 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended FC Aarau 3–2 Rapperswil.

More Challenge League predictions

All Challenge League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rapperswil vs FC Aarau

64%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rapperswil win Draw FC Aarau win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Rapperswil first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Rapperswil at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rapperswil vs FC Aarau

Rapperswil

Challenge League

  • L0-1away to SC Kriens6 November 2026
  • L1-4Stade Nyonnais30 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC WIL 190023 October 2026
  • L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026

FC Aarau

Challenge League

  • L0-3FC WIL 19006 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC30 October 2026
  • L1-2Étoile Carouge24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Rapperswil failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rapperswil conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rapperswil had three goals or more.
  • FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
  • FC Aarau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Rapperswil133281826-811
6FC Aarau134361924-515

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rapperswil

Chance to finish in the bottom one · 9% today

Win 2%
Draw 8%
Defeat 15%

FC Aarau

Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today

Win 8%
Draw 3%
Defeat 1%

From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rapperswil vs FC Aarau

  • 4 September 2026FC Aarau 3–2 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 4 April 2026Rapperswil 4–5 FC AarauChallenge League
  • 27 February 2026FC Aarau 5–3 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 1 November 2025FC Aarau 2–1 RapperswilChallenge League
  • 29 August 2025Rapperswil 0–1 FC AarauChallenge League

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Aarau (sixth, with Rapperswil ninth), while our numbers lean to Rapperswil. Rapperswil rate 0.44 in attack and 2.50 in defence, FC Aarau 0.51 and 2.28 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

How the call on Rapperswil v FC Aarau has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 39% / 26% / 35%: the biggest move is Rapperswil's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rapperswil win39%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. FC Aarau win35%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rapperswil FC Aarau
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
2.5 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.28
1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 1.54

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rapperswil the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rapperswil against 1.54 for FC Aarau. Rapperswil's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.28 for FC Aarau.

Rapperswil carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.1 for FC Aarau. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Rapperswil to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rapperswil to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Rapperswil's ratings take away 4 points and FC Aarau's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Rapperswil's ratings42%−4
  5. FC Aarau's ratings39%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

RapperswilFC Aarau
13Matches13
3W 2D 8LRecord4W 3D 6L
18 1.4 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game
26 2.0 per gameGoals conceded24 1.8 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets0 of 13
4 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 3
29 2.2 per gameYellow cards25 1.9 per game
1Red cards1

Rapperswil at home · FC Aarau away

6Played6
1W 1D 4LRecord1W 1D 4L
8–15Goals for – against8–12
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Challenge League matches this season: Rapperswil 13, FC Aarau 13.

Rapperswil scored 430434
FC Aarau conceded 332645
FC Aarau scored 502256
Rapperswil conceded 423737

FC Aarau score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Rapperswil have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Rapperswil

  • at FC Winterthur27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 15%
  • vs Neuchatel Xamax FC6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 39%
  • at Yverdon Sport13 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
  • vs Étoile Carouge18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 41%

FC Aarau

  • at SC Kriens27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 27%
  • vs Yverdon Sport5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 35%
  • at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
  • vs FC Winterthur18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.