Regular Season - 27 · 22 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction

Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg

Our model says: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Lillestrom

The model makes it 33% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 29% draw, 38% Lillestrom — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.21, Lillestrom 1.35.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Edge to Lillestrom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sarpsborg 08 FF's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Lillestrom's from 26, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.

Key facts

  • Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 31 points from 26 games; Lillestrom are 4th on 45 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Ham-Kam.
  • Lillestrom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Aalesund.
  • Last 6 meetings: Lillestrom 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Lillestrom 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.

More Eliteserien predictions

All Eliteserien predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom

53%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sarpsborg 08 FF win Draw Lillestrom win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Sarpsborg 08 FF first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lillestrom at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien

  • L0-3away to Ham-Kam8 November 2026
  • L2-4Kristiansund BK1 November 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund25 October 2026
  • L0-3Rosenborg18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026

Lillestrom

Eliteserien

  • W3-2Aalesund8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Start1 November 2026
  • W3-2Brann25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Sandefjord18 October 2026
  • D2-2Molde11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Sarpsborg 08 FF had three goals or more.
  • Lillestrom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Lillestrom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lillestrom won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2687113242-1031
4Lillestrom2614393935+445

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today

Win <1%
Draw 2%
Defeat 5%

From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom

  • 3 July 2026Lillestrom 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 May 2026Lillestrom 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 6 December 2025Lillestrom 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
  • 28 July 2024Lillestrom 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 5 May 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 LillestromEliteserien
  • 17 September 2023Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 LillestromEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom

Sarpsborg 08 FF

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Sarpsborg 08 FF v Lillestrom has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 33% / 29% / 38%: the biggest move is Sarpsborg 08 FF's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sarpsborg 08 FF win33%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Lillestrom win38%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sarpsborg 08 FF Lillestrom
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.11
1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.35 for Lillestrom. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.11 for Lillestrom.

How the model reaches 38% for Lillestrom to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lillestrom to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings add 4 points and Lillestrom's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage31%−6
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. Sarpsborg 08 FF's ratings34%+4
  5. Lillestrom's ratings38%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sarpsborg 08 FFLillestrom
26Matches26
8W 7D 11LRecord14W 3D 9L
32 1.2 per gameGoals scored39 1.5 per game
42 1.6 per gameGoals conceded35 1.3 per game
5 of 26Clean sheets8 of 26
7 of 26Failed to score7 of 26
5 of 6Penalties scored3 of 4
39 1.5 per gameYellow cards43 1.7 per game
3Red cards2
4-4-2 17×Usual shape4-1-4-1 22×

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home · Lillestrom away

13Played13
5W 3D 5LRecord7W 2D 4L
16–20Goals for – against14–14
2 of 13Clean sheets6 of 13

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Sarpsborg 08 FF 26, Lillestrom 26.

Sarpsborg 08 FF scored 469523
Lillestrom conceded 775528

Sarpsborg 08 FF score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Lillestrom have let in 5 there.

Lillestrom scored 7816512
Sarpsborg 08 FF conceded 598549

Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Sarpsborg 08 FF have let in 9 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • at Start29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 38%
  • vs Brann6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 32%
  • at Bodo/Glimt13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 11%

Lillestrom

  • at Lyon26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 18%
  • vs Ham-Kam30 Nov · Eliteserienwin 52%
  • at Kristiansund BK6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 42%
  • at Levski Sofia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
  • vs Tromso13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.