Ham-Kam
vs
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Ham-Kam 2–1 Fredrikstad
The model makes it 42% Ham-Kam, 27% draw, 31% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.59, Fredrikstad 1.28.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Ham-Kam's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Fredrikstad's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Ham-Kam are 11th on 30 points from 26 games; Fredrikstad are 12th on 30 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Ham-Kam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sarpsborg 08 FF.
- Fredrikstad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Brann.
- Last 6 meetings: Fredrikstad 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended Fredrikstad 1–1 Ham-Kam.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
Has the model earned this number?
Ham-Kam at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
- W3-0Sarpsborg 08 FF8 November 2026
- D2-2away to KFUM Oslo1 November 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg24 October 2026
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt17 October 2026
- W4-2away to Start11 October 2026
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien
- D2-2Brann8 November 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Molde25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
- D1-1Tromso11 October 2026
What these results say
- Ham-Kam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
- Fredrikstad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ham-Kam
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Fredrikstad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad
- 20 June 2026Fredrikstad 1–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 5 October 2025Fredrikstad 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 July 2025Ham-Kam 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 21 February 2025Ham-Kam 0–1 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 23 November 2024Fredrikstad 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ham-Kam the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 1.28 for Fredrikstad. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.29 for Fredrikstad.
How the model reaches 42% for Ham-Kam to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ham-Kam to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ham-Kam's ratings change nothing and Fredrikstad's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Ham-Kam's ratings43%±0
- Fredrikstad's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ham-Kam at home · Fredrikstad away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Ham-Kam 26, Fredrikstad 26.
Ham-Kam score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Fredrikstad have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ham-Kam
- at Lillestrom30 Nov · Eliteserienwin 23%
- vs Sandefjord6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 37%
- at Viking13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 11%
Fredrikstad
- vs Aalesund29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 43%
- at KFUM Oslo6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 30%
- vs Molde13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.