Colo Colo
vs
Universidad Catolica
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Colo Colo 2–1 Universidad Catolica
The model makes it 53% Colo Colo, 22% draw, 25% Universidad Catolica — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Colo Colo 2.33, Universidad Catolica 1.46.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Colo Colo are top on 61 points from 27 games; Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 49 points from 27 games — Primera División.
- Colo Colo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Nublense.
- Universidad Catolica are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Deportes Limache.
- Last 6 meetings: Colo Colo 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Universidad Catolica 1–2 Colo Colo.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colo Colo vs Universidad Catolica
Has the model earned this number?
Colo Colo at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Colo Colo vs Universidad Catolica
Colo Colo
Primera División
- W2-1away to Nublense8 November 2026
- W6-1Universidad de Concepcion30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Palestino25 October 2026
- L2-5away to Coquimbo Unido11 October 2026
- D1-1Concepción13 September 2026
Universidad Catolica
Primera División
- W3-0Deportes Limache8 November 2026
- W1-0Universidad de Chile1 November 2026
- D1-1Audax Italiano28 October 2026
- L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
What these results say
- Colo Colo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colo Colo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Colo Colo.
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 30 | +29 | 61 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Colo Colo vs Universidad Catolica
- 24 May 2026Universidad Catolica 1–2 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 16 August 2025Colo Colo 1–4 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 6 July 2025Universidad Catolica 2–0 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 3 October 2024Colo Colo 1–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 20 April 2024Universidad Catolica 0–1 Colo ColoPrimera División
- 1 October 2023Colo Colo 2–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Colo Colo and Universidad Catolica
Colo Colo
GoalsAssists
- J. Correa186
- M. Romero81
- L. Hernández74
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri262
- J. Giani74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colo Colo a 100% chance of the title and Universidad Catolica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colo Colo the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Colo Colo against 1.46 for Universidad Catolica. Colo Colo's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.43 for Universidad Catolica.
How the model reaches 53% for Colo Colo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Colo Colo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Colo Colo's ratings add 3 points and Universidad Catolica's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level48%+3
- Colo Colo's ratings51%+3
- Universidad Catolica's ratings53%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Colo Colo at home · Universidad Catolica away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Colo Colo 27, Universidad Catolica 27.
Colo Colo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Universidad Catolica have let in 10 there.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Colo Colo have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Colo Colo
- vs Deportes La Serena29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 63%
- at Cobresal6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
Universidad Catolica
- vs Huachipato29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 59%
- at Universidad de Concepcion6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.