Aalesund
vs
Rosenborg
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Aalesund 1–2 Rosenborg
The model makes it 24% Aalesund, 22% draw, 54% Rosenborg — fair odds of 4.17, 4.55 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Aalesund 1.49, Rosenborg 2.45.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Rosenborg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Aalesund's rating is built from 28 Eliteserien matches and Rosenborg's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Aalesund are 15th on 24 points from 26 games; Rosenborg are 3rd on 46 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Aalesund are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Lillestrom.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Start.
- Last 6 meetings: Rosenborg 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Rosenborg 2–3 Aalesund.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aalesund vs Rosenborg
Has the model earned this number?
Rosenborg at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aalesund vs Rosenborg
Aalesund
Eliteserien
- L2-3away to Lillestrom8 November 2026
- L3-4Sandefjord31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
- L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026
Rosenborg
Eliteserien
- W4-1Start7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Fredrikstad31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Ham-Kam24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 October 2026
- D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
- Rosenborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aalesund
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Rosenborg
- 16 May 2026Rosenborg 2–3 AalesundEliteserien
- 9 February 2024Rosenborg 2–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 27 August 2023Rosenborg 4–0 AalesundEliteserien
- 2 July 2023Aalesund 1–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 3 March 2023Rosenborg 1–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 21 August 2022Rosenborg 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Rosenborg
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha184
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Aalesund against 2.45 for Rosenborg. Aalesund's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1 for Rosenborg.
How the model reaches 54% for Rosenborg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Rosenborg to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Aalesund's ratings add 11 points and Rosenborg's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Aalesund's ratings43%+11
- Rosenborg's ratings54%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aalesund at home · Rosenborg away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Aalesund 26, Rosenborg 26.
Rosenborg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Aalesund have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aalesund
- at Fredrikstad29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 32%
- vs Bodo/Glimt5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 19%
- at Brann13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 23%
Rosenborg
- vs Molde28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 55%
- at Valerenga5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 46%
- vs KFUM Oslo13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 65%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.