Tromso
vs
Viking
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Tromso 1–2 Viking
The model makes it 24% Tromso, 24% draw, 52% Viking — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Tromso 1.22, Viking 2.05.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Viking are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Tromso's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Viking's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Tromso are 6th on 40 points from 26 games; Viking are top on 62 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Tromso have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Bodo/Glimt.
- Viking have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to KFUM Oslo.
- Last 6 meetings: Viking 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 October 2026, ended Viking 3–1 Tromso.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tromso vs Viking
Has the model earned this number?
Viking at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tromso vs Viking
Tromso
Eliteserien
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt8 November 2026
- L0-4away to Valerenga1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Viking25 October 2026
- D1-1KFUM Oslo18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
Viking
Eliteserien
- W5-1KFUM Oslo8 November 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt30 October 2026
- W3-1Tromso25 October 2026
- W3-2Fredrikstad17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Brann9 October 2026
What these results say
- Tromso did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Viking won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viking conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
| 1 | Viking | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 27 | +42 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Viking
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 51% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Tromso vs Viking
- 25 October 2026Viking 3–1 TromsoEliteserien
- 20 February 2026Tromso 1–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs
- 19 October 2025Tromso 1–3 VikingEliteserien
- 27 April 2025Viking 4–4 TromsoEliteserien
- 1 September 2024Tromso 2–2 VikingEliteserien
- 5 May 2024Viking 2–1 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Tromso and Viking
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Viking
GoalsAssists
- P. Christiansen187
- S. Kvia-Egeskog93
- H. Heggheim73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tromso a 0% chance of the title and Viking 51%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Tromso v Viking has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 26% / 24% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 24% / 24% / 52%: the biggest move is Tromso's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Tromso win24%▼ −2
- Draw24%=
- Viking win52%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tromso against 2.05 for Viking. Tromso's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.95 for Viking.
How the model reaches 52% for Viking to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Viking to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Tromso's ratings add 10 points and Viking's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Tromso's ratings41%+10
- Viking's ratings52%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Tromso at home · Viking away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Tromso 26, Viking 26.
Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Viking have let in 7 there.
Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (16 goals); Tromso have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tromso
- at Sandefjord29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
- vs Start6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 58%
- at Lillestrom13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 28%
Viking
- at Atletico Madrid25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
- vs Valerenga29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 66%
- at Molde4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 47%
- vs Feyenoord8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Ham-Kam13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 73%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.