Valerenga
vs
Start
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Valerenga 2–1 Start
The model makes it 60% Valerenga, 22% draw, 18% Start — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Valerenga 2.26, Start 1.03.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Valerenga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Valerenga's rating is built from 55 Eliteserien matches and Start's from 26, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Valerenga are 8th on 32 points from 26 games; Start are bottom on 19 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Valerenga have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kristiansund BK.
- Start have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Rosenborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Valerenga 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 May 2026, ended Start 2–0 Valerenga.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Valerenga vs Start
Has the model earned this number?
Valerenga at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Valerenga vs Start
Valerenga
Eliteserien
- L0-1away to Kristiansund BK9 November 2026
- W4-0Tromso1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Bodo/Glimt24 October 2026
- W3-1Brann18 October 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
Start
Eliteserien
- L1-4away to Rosenborg7 November 2026
- L0-1Lillestrom1 November 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord25 October 2026
- L1-6away to Molde18 October 2026
- L2-4Ham-Kam11 October 2026
What these results say
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Start conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 16 | Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Start
- 25 May 2026Start 2–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 2 November 2024Valerenga 1–1 Start1. Division
- 20 July 2024Start 1–2 Valerenga1. Division
- 1 March 2022Valerenga 3–1 StartFriendlies Clubs
- 22 December 2020Valerenga 4–0 StartEliteserien
- 17 August 2020Start 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Start
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Start
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valerenga the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Valerenga against 1.03 for Start. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.62 for Start.
How the model reaches 60% for Valerenga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Valerenga to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Valerenga's ratings add 9 points and Start's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Valerenga's ratings52%+9
- Start's ratings60%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Valerenga at home · Start away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Valerenga 26, Start 26.
Valerenga score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Start have let in 12 there.
Start score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Valerenga have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Valerenga
- at Viking29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 15%
- vs Rosenborg5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 29%
- at Sandefjord13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 32%
Start
- vs Sarpsborg 08 FF29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
- at Tromso6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 19%
- vs Kristiansund BK13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.