Regular Season - 28 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Cobresal vs Audax Italiano Primera División prediction

Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, El Salvador

Our model says: Cobresal 1–0 Audax Italiano

The model makes it 44% Cobresal, 28% draw, 28% Audax Italiano — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Cobresal 1.57, Audax Italiano 1.14.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Cobresal are 14th on 27 points from 27 games; Audax Italiano are 13th on 30 points from 27 games — Primera División.
  • Cobresal are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Universidad de Chile.
  • Audax Italiano are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Coquimbo Unido.
  • Last 6 meetings: Audax Italiano 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Audax Italiano 2–1 Cobresal.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cobresal vs Audax Italiano

54%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cobresal win Draw Audax Italiano win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Cobresal first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cobresal at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cobresal vs Audax Italiano

Cobresal

Primera División

  • L1-2away to Universidad de Chile8 November 2026
  • D2-2Everton de Vina1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to O'Higgins24 October 2026
  • D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026

Audax Italiano

Primera División

  • L0-1Coquimbo Unido8 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportes Limache2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Universidad Catolica28 October 2026
  • D1-1Huachipato23 October 2026
  • W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Cobresal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cobresal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Cobresal.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
  • Audax Italiano failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Audax Italiano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cobresal2776143950-1127
13Audax Italiano2779112836-830

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cobresal

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today

Win 46%
Draw 79%
Defeat 94%

Audax Italiano

Chance to finish in the bottom three

Win 1%
Draw 15%
Defeat 41%

From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cobresal vs Audax Italiano

  • 23 May 2026Audax Italiano 2–1 CobresalPrimera División
  • 4 March 2026Cobresal 1–1 Audax ItalianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 31 October 2025Audax Italiano 1–2 CobresalPrimera División
  • 17 May 2025Cobresal 0–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
  • 25 September 2024Cobresal 0–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
  • 30 April 2024Audax Italiano 0–1 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: Cobresal and Audax Italiano

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino81
  • J. Brea71

Audax Italiano

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Audax Italiano (13th, with Cobresal 14th), while our numbers lean to Cobresal. Cobresal rate 0.65 in attack and 1.81 in defence, Audax Italiano 0.51 and 1.44 (lower is better in defence), so Cobresal have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Cobresal v Audax Italiano has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Audax Italiano's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Cobresal win44%▲ +1
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Audax Italiano win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cobresal Audax Italiano
0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
1.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.44
1.57 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cobresal the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Cobresal against 1.14 for Audax Italiano. Cobresal's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.44 for Audax Italiano.

Cobresal carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.34 for Audax Italiano. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Cobresal to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Cobresal to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cobresal's ratings add 1 point and Audax Italiano's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage45%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−1
  4. Cobresal's ratings45%+1
  5. Audax Italiano's ratings44%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CobresalAudax Italiano
26Matches27
6W 6D 14LRecord7W 9D 11L
36 1.4 per gameGoals scored28 1.0 per game
50 1.9 per gameGoals conceded36 1.3 per game
4 of 26Clean sheets9 of 27
7 of 26Failed to score9 of 27
2 of 3Penalties scored5 of 6
59 2.3 per gameYellow cards76 2.8 per game
4Red cards7
4-4-2 7×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

Cobresal at home · Audax Italiano away

13Played13
6W 2D 5LRecord2W 4D 7L
21–19Goals for – against8–21
4 of 13Clean sheets4 of 13

League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Primera División matches this season: Cobresal 26, Audax Italiano 27.

Cobresal scored 7211076
Audax Italiano conceded 754756

Cobresal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Audax Italiano have let in 7 there.

Audax Italiano scored 647612
Cobresal conceded 63104911

Audax Italiano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Cobresal have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Cobresal

  • at Nublense29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
  • vs Colo Colo6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 29%

Audax Italiano

  • vs Palestino29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
  • at Deportes La Serena6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 26%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.