Kristiansund BK
vs
Sandefjord
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Kristiansund BK 1–2 Sandefjord
The model makes it 33% Kristiansund BK, 28% draw, 39% Sandefjord — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.31, Sandefjord 1.46.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Sandefjord: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kristiansund BK's rating is built from 55 Eliteserien matches and Sandefjord's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Kristiansund BK are 14th on 26 points from 26 games; Sandefjord are 13th on 28 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Kristiansund BK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Valerenga.
- Sandefjord have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-5 draw at home to Molde.
- Last 6 meetings: Sandefjord 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Sandefjord 2–0 Kristiansund BK.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord
Has the model earned this number?
Sandefjord at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien
- W1-0Valerenga9 November 2026
- W4-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF1 November 2026
- D2-2KFUM Oslo25 October 2026
- L1-4Aalesund17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bodo/Glimt10 October 2026
Sandefjord
Eliteserien
- D5-5Molde8 November 2026
- W4-3away to Aalesund31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Start25 October 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Kristiansund BK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kristiansund BK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kristiansund BK had three goals or more.
- Sandefjord conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 26 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kristiansund BK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 68% today
Sandefjord
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord
- 10 May 2026Sandefjord 2–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 17 August 2025Kristiansund BK 2–2 SandefjordEliteserien
- 20 July 2025Sandefjord 6–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 5 October 2024Kristiansund BK 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 25 August 2024Sandefjord 1–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
- 4 September 2022Kristiansund BK 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
GoalsAssists
- L. Alvheim120
Sandefjord
GoalsAssists
- E. Patoulidis83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sandefjord the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kristiansund BK against 1.46 for Sandefjord. Kristiansund BK's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.22 for Sandefjord.
How the model reaches 39% for Sandefjord to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sandefjord to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Kristiansund BK's ratings add 4 points and Sandefjord's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Kristiansund BK's ratings35%+4
- Sandefjord's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kristiansund BK at home · Sandefjord away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Kristiansund BK 26, Sandefjord 26.
Kristiansund BK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Sandefjord have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kristiansund BK
- at Brann29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 19%
- vs Lillestrom6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 30%
- at Start13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 35%
Sandefjord
- vs Tromso29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 42%
- at Ham-Kam6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Valerenga13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.