Aldosivi
vs
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Aldosivi 0–1 River Plate
The model makes it 25% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 46% River Plate — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.93, River Plate 1.48.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: River Plate are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Aldosivi's rating is built from 61 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and River Plate's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Aldosivi are bottom on 8 points from 13 games; River Plate are 6th on 20 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Aldosivi are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.
- River Plate are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Belgrano Cordoba.
- Last 5 meetings: River Plate 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended River Plate 1–3 Aldosivi.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aldosivi vs River Plate
Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aldosivi vs River Plate
Aldosivi
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L1-2away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto18 October 2026
- L1-3Sarmiento Junin9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Huracan4 October 2026
- W1-0Atletico Tucuman21 September 2026
- L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W3-0away to Belgrano Cordoba18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026
- W1-0Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto11 October 2026
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
What these results say
- Aldosivi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- River Plate scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aldosivi | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
| 6 | River Plate | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs River Plate
- 18 July 2026River Plate 1–3 AldosiviCopa Argentina
- 26 April 2026River Plate 3–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 July 2022Aldosivi 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 August 2021River Plate 2–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 May 2021River Plate 4–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Aldosivi and River Plate
Aldosivi
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
- G. Montiel73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Aldosivi carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.79 for River Plate. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Aldosivi and 1.48 for River Plate. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aldosivi rate 0.68 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; River Plate rate 0.99 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Aldosivi against 1.48 for River Plate. Aldosivi's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.11 for River Plate.
How the model reaches 46% for River Plate to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for River Plate to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Aldosivi's ratings add 21 points and River Plate's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage28%−6
- Aldosivi's ratings49%+21
- River Plate's ratings46%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aldosivi at home · River Plate away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Aldosivi 29, River Plate 33.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.