Houston Dynamo
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Houston Dynamo 2–1 St. Louis City
The model makes it 36% Houston Dynamo, 28% draw, 36% St. Louis City — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.40, St. Louis City 1.39.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Houston Dynamo's rating is built from 65 MLS matches and St. Louis City's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- Houston Dynamo are 5th on 48 points from 31 games; St. Louis City are 3rd on 51 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Houston Dynamo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Minnesota United FC.
- St. Louis City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Real Salt Lake.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended St. Louis City 2–1 Houston Dynamo.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer
- D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026
- D3-3away to San Diego15 October 2026
- D2-2away to Minnesota United FC11 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps15 October 2026
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
What these results say
- Houston Dynamo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 48 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | +12 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
St. Louis City
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 4% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
- 23 August 2026St. Louis City 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 20 May 2026St. Louis City 2–2 Houston DynamoUS Open Cup
- 31 August 2025St. Louis City 2–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024St. Louis City 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Houston Dynamo 0–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro186
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.59 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.39 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Houston Dynamo rate 0.55 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.83 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St. Louis City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Houston Dynamo a 0% chance of the title and St. Louis City 3.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.39 for St. Louis City. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.39 for St. Louis City.
How the model reaches 36% for Houston Dynamo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Houston Dynamo to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Houston Dynamo's ratings take away 20 points and St. Louis City's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Houston Dynamo's ratings24%−20
- St. Louis City's ratings36%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Houston Dynamo at home · St. Louis City away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Houston Dynamo 31, St. Louis City 31.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); St. Louis City have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.