Minnesota United FC
vs
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Minnesota United FC 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes
The model makes it 43% Minnesota United FC, 25% draw, 32% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.91, San Jose Earthquakes 1.57.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Minnesota United FC's rating is built from 69 MLS matches and San Jose Earthquakes's from 65, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,527 matches.
Key facts
- Minnesota United FC are 13th on 35 points from 31 games; San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 48 points from 31 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Minnesota United FC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Houston Dynamo.
- San Jose Earthquakes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Dallas.
- Last 6 meetings: Minnesota United FC 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo25 October 2026
- W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Colorado Rapids15 October 2026
- D2-2Houston Dynamo11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Seattle Sounders27 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer
- L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
- D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 35 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Minnesota United FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 23 August 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
- 13 July 2025Minnesota United FC 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah173
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Minnesota United FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.46 for San Jose Earthquakes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Minnesota United FC and 1.57 for San Jose Earthquakes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Minnesota United FC rate 0.72 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.66 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Jose Earthquakes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Minnesota United FC a 0% chance of the title and San Jose Earthquakes 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Minnesota United FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Minnesota United FC against 1.57 for San Jose Earthquakes. Minnesota United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.45 for San Jose Earthquakes.
How the model reaches 43% for Minnesota United FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Minnesota United FC to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Minnesota United FC's ratings take away 22 points and San Jose Earthquakes's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Minnesota United FC's ratings22%−22
- San Jose Earthquakes's ratings43%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Minnesota United FC at home · San Jose Earthquakes away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Minnesota United FC 31, San Jose Earthquakes 31.
Minnesota United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 2 there.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Minnesota United FC have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.