Rudes
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: Rudes 1–2 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 15% Rudes, 19% draw, 66% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 6.67, 5.26 and 1.52. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Rudes 1.18, Dinamo Zagreb 2.88.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Zagreb are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rudes are 9th on 7 points from 10 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 4th on 16 points from 8 games — HNL.
- Rudes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to HNK Hajduk Split.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Rudes.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 66% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb
Rudes
- L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
What these results say
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rudes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 88% today
Dinamo Zagreb
Chance to win the league · 65% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 14 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 RudesHNL
- 26 May 2024Dinamo Zagreb 3–3 RudesHNL
- 17 March 2024Rudes 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 9 December 2023Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
- 24 September 2023Rudes 1–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 16 December 2020Rudes 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebCup
Leading scorers: Rudes and Dinamo Zagreb
Rudes
GoalsAssists
- N. Skoko30
- L. Ilečić22
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Rudes carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.78 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Rudes and 2.88 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rudes rate 0.61 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.05 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rudes a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 64.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rudes against 2.88 for Dinamo Zagreb. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.23 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rudes at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: Rudes 10, Dinamo Zagreb 8.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Rudes have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rudes
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 22%
- vs NK Varazdin21 Nov · HNLwin 26%
- at HNK Hajduk Split28 Nov · HNLwin 10%
- vs Istra 19615 Dec · HNLwin 35%
Dinamo Zagreb
- at Sunderland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- at NK Varazdin7 Nov · HNLwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.