Alianza Lima
vs
Cienciano
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Lima 1–0 Cienciano
The model makes it 55% Alianza Lima, 25% draw, 20% Cienciano — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alianza Lima 1.89, Cienciano 0.91.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Alianza Lima: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alianza Lima are top on 59 points from 28 games; Cienciano are 7th on 44 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Lima have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Cusco.
- Cienciano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to UCV Moquegua.
- Last 6 meetings: Cienciano 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Cienciano 0–1 Alianza Lima.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Lima at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
Alianza Lima
- W2-1away to Cusco11 October 2026
- W2-0ADT19 September 2026
- L1-2Universitario13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juan Pablo II College6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Garcilaso30 August 2026
Cienciano
- W2-0away to UCV Moquegua8 October 2026
- D1-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas30 September 2026
- L1-2away to ADT23 September 2026
- W5-2away to FC Cajamarca4 September 2026
- L1-2Cusco31 August 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Lima scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Lima conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cienciano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cienciano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cienciano.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 59 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
- 16 May 2026Cienciano 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 28 September 2025Cienciano 2–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 3 May 2025Alianza Lima 0–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 21 August 2024Alianza Lima 3–0 CiencianoPrimera División
- 14 March 2024Cienciano 2–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
- 20 August 2023Cienciano 0–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and Cienciano
Alianza Lima
GoalsAssists
- E. Castillo175
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés153
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alianza Lima carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.38 for Cienciano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.91 for Cienciano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Lima rate 0.67 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cienciano rate 0.67 and 1.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alianza Lima a 98.6% chance of the title and Cienciano 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Lima the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Alianza Lima against 0.91 for Cienciano. Alianza Lima's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.73 for Cienciano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Lima at home · Cienciano away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Lima 28, Cienciano 28.
Alianza Lima score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Cienciano have let in 8 there.
Cienciano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Alianza Lima have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Alianza Lima
- at Club Deportivo Los Chankas7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 47%
- vs FC Cajamarca14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 64%
Cienciano
- vs Sport Huancayo7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 47%
- at Sporting Cristal14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.