NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
NK Osijek
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 NK Osijek
The model makes it 42% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 29% draw, 29% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.35, NK Osijek 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 7th on 10 points from 10 games; NK Osijek are 5th on 16 points from 9 games — HNL.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Istra 1961.
- NK Osijek are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to HNK Gorica.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended NK Osijek 1–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
NK Osijek
- D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
- L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
NK Osijek
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek
- 15 August 2026NK Osijek 1–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 25 April 2026NK Osijek 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 21 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 23 November 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 31 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 9 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Osijek
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León51
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.35 for NK Osijek. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.02 for NK Osijek. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.55 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Osijek rate 0.57 and 1.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Osijek, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 0% chance of the title and NK Osijek 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.02 for NK Osijek. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.56 for NK Osijek.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home · NK Osijek away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 10, NK Osijek 9.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); NK Osijek have let in 5 there.
NK Osijek score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- vs Rudes7 Nov · HNLwin 54%
- at HNK Hajduk Split21 Nov · HNLwin 16%
- vs NK Slaven Belupo28 Nov · HNLwin 46%
- at HNK Rijeka5 Dec · HNLwin 21%
NK Osijek
- vs HNK Hajduk Split7 Nov · HNLwin 28%
- at NK Slaven Belupo21 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- vs HNK Rijeka28 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- at Dinamo Zagreb5 Dec · HNLwin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.