HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 NK Varazdin
The model makes it 45% HNK Hajduk Split, 30% draw, 25% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.56, NK Varazdin 0.88.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are 2nd on 16 points from 8 games; NK Varazdin are 4th on 15 points from 8 games — HNL.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to HNK Rijeka.
- NK Varazdin are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to NK Osijek.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split.
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
NK Varazdin
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Varazdin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
- 2 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 May 2026HNK Hajduk Split 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 28 February 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 29 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 13 September 2025NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 18 April 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assist
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
- L. Mamić3 goals
- A. Latković2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.51 for NK Varazdin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.88 for NK Varazdin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Varazdin rate 0.62 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 20.4% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 2.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.88 for NK Varazdin. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.24 for NK Varazdin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · NK Varazdin away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 8, NK Varazdin 8.
HNK Hajduk Split score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); NK Varazdin have let in 2 there.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- at FC Thun22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 36%
- at Istra 196124 Oct · HNLwin 40%
- vs HNK Gorica31 Oct · HNLwin 53%
NK Varazdin
- vs NK Slaven Belupo24 Oct · HNLwin 51%
- at HNK Rijeka31 Oct · HNLwin 27%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- at Rudes21 Nov · HNLwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.