NK Slaven Belupo
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 21% NK Slaven Belupo, 25% draw, 54% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 0.99, Dinamo Zagreb 2.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- NK Slaven Belupo are 8th on 7 points from 8 games; Dinamo Zagreb are top on 16 points from 7 games — HNL.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Rudes.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Slaven Belupo.
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 54% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
- W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 |
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 31 July 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 17 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 14 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 28 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 4–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 5–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb
NK Slaven Belupo
- I. Nestorovski5 goals
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo9 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.79 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 2.25 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.52 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.06 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Slaven Belupo a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 68%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 2.25 for Dinamo Zagreb. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.21 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Slaven Belupo at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Slaven Belupo 8, Dinamo Zagreb 7.
Dinamo Zagreb score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
NK Slaven Belupo
- at NK Varazdin24 Oct · HNLwin 21%
- vs Istra 196131 Oct · HNLwin 36%
- at HNK Gorica7 Nov · HNLwin 27%
- vs NK Osijek21 Nov · HNLwin 34%
Dinamo Zagreb
- vs NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- vs HNK Rijeka24 Oct · HNLwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.