Alianza Atletico
vs
Juan Pablo II College
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Alianza Atletico 2–1 Juan Pablo II College
The model makes it 53% Alianza Atletico, 23% draw, 24% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Alianza Atletico 2.16, Juan Pablo II College 1.28.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alianza Atletico are 8th on 43 points from 28 games; Juan Pablo II College are 12th on 35 points from 28 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Alianza Atletico have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sport Boys.
- Juan Pablo II College are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Last 4 meetings: Juan Pablo II College 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Juan Pablo II College 0–2 Alianza Atletico.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Atletico at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College
Alianza Atletico
- W3-1away to Sport Boys11 October 2026
- W2-1Comerciantes Unidos18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Grau13 September 2026
- W3-2UTC Cajamarca4 September 2026
- W4-1away to UCV Moquegua30 August 2026
Juan Pablo II College
- D1-1away to Comerciantes Unidos10 October 2026
- W4-0UCV Moquegua20 September 2026
- W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca11 September 2026
- D1-1Alianza Lima6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alianza Atletico conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.
- Juan Pablo II College went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juan Pablo II College conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | +7 | 43 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College
- 16 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 0–2 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
- 24 January 2026Juan Pablo II College 3–0 Alianza AtleticoFriendlies Clubs
- 13 September 2025Alianza Atletico 0–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 12 April 2025Juan Pablo II College 1–0 Alianza AtleticoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Alianza Atletico and Juan Pablo II College
Alianza Atletico
GoalsAssists
- C. Penilla84
Juan Pablo II College
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alianza Atletico carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.32 for Juan Pablo II College. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Alianza Atletico and 1.28 for Juan Pablo II College. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Atletico rate 0.70 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juan Pablo II College rate 0.65 and 1.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Atletico the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Alianza Atletico against 1.28 for Juan Pablo II College. Alianza Atletico's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.9 for Juan Pablo II College.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Atletico at home · Juan Pablo II College away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Alianza Atletico 28, Juan Pablo II College 28.
Alianza Atletico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Juan Pablo II College have let in 11 there.
Juan Pablo II College score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Alianza Atletico have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Alianza Atletico
- at FC Cajamarca7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
- vs FBC Melgar14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 40%
Juan Pablo II College
- at FBC Melgar7 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 20%
- vs Deportivo Garcilaso14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.