HNK Rijeka
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK Varazdin
The model makes it 40% HNK Rijeka, 31% draw, 29% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 1.20, NK Varazdin 0.93.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HNK Rijeka are 3rd on 17 points from 9 games; NK Varazdin are 2nd on 18 points from 9 games — HNL.
- HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Rudes.
- NK Varazdin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK Rijeka.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
HNK Rijeka
- W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
- L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
NK Varazdin
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka had three goals or more.
- NK Varazdin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Varazdin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HNK Rijeka
Chance to finish in the top four · 69% today
NK Varazdin
Chance to finish in the top four · 78% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
- 16 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 22 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 14 February 2026HNK Rijeka 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 9 November 2025NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 24 August 2025HNK Rijeka 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 13 April 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- T. Fruk34
- Tiago Dantas32
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.53 for NK Varazdin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for HNK Rijeka and 0.93 for NK Varazdin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Rijeka rate 0.65 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Varazdin rate 0.61 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Varazdin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Rijeka a 3.4% chance of the title and NK Varazdin 5.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 0.93 for NK Varazdin. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.18 for NK Varazdin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Rijeka at home · NK Varazdin away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Rijeka 9, NK Varazdin 9.
HNK Rijeka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); NK Varazdin have let in 0 there.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); HNK Rijeka have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
HNK Rijeka
- at Istra 19617 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- vs HNK Gorica21 Nov · HNLwin 52%
- at NK Osijek28 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb3 Dec · HNLwin 30%
NK Varazdin
- vs Dinamo Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- at Rudes21 Nov · HNLwin 47%
- at Istra 196128 Nov · HNLwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.