HNK Hajduk Split
vs
HNK Gorica
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK Gorica
The model makes it 61% HNK Hajduk Split, 25% draw, 14% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 1.64, 4.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.80, HNK Gorica 0.61.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are top on 19 points from 9 games; HNK Gorica are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — HNL.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
- HNK Gorica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to NK Osijek.
- Last 6 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk Split.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
HNK Gorica
- D1-1away to NK Osijek17 October 2026
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HNK Hajduk Split
Chance to win the league · 26% today
HNK Gorica
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 77% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
- 16 August 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 12 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 31 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 24 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 10 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 11 May 2025HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego41
- M. Livaja30
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.29 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.61 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.44 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 26.2% chance of the title and HNK Gorica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.61 for HNK Gorica. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.43 for HNK Gorica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · HNK Gorica away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 9, HNK Gorica 9.
HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- at Lincoln Red Imps FC5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 50%
- at NK Osijek7 Nov · HNLwin 43%
HNK Gorica
- vs NK Slaven Belupo7 Nov · HNLwin 41%
- at HNK Rijeka21 Nov · HNLwin 19%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 20%
- at NK Varazdin5 Dec · HNLwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.