Olimpia
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta
The model makes it 69% Olimpia, 19% draw, 12% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Olimpia 2.61, Deportivo Recoleta 0.83.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Olimpia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Olimpia's rating is built from 37 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Deportivo Recoleta's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olimpia are top on 30 points from 15 games; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 12 points from 16 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
- Deportivo Recoleta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to 2 de Mayo.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 Olimpia.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpia at 69% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
- D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026
- W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion28 September 2026
- W3-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo20 September 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
- L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Recoleta had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 30 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 29 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 15 May 2026Olimpia 3–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 10 October 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 30 July 2025Olimpia 1–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 June 2025Olimpia 0–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- A. Alcaraz71
- S. Quintana41
- H. Sandoval40
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Olimpia carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.24 for Deportivo Recoleta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.61 goals for Olimpia and 0.83 for Deportivo Recoleta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olimpia rate 0.82 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.58 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 51.1% chance of the title and Deportivo Recoleta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Olimpia against 0.83 for Deportivo Recoleta. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.96 for Deportivo Recoleta.
How the model reaches 69% for Olimpia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olimpia's ratings take away 10 points and Deportivo Recoleta's ratings add 35 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olimpia's ratings34%−10
- Deportivo Recoleta's ratings69%+35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · Deportivo Recoleta away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 15, Deportivo Recoleta 16.
Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Olimpia
- at Club Guarani15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 47%
- at Sportivo Luqueno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%
Deportivo Recoleta
- at Cerro Porteno15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 17%
- vs Club Guarani18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at Sportivo Trinidense25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 14%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.