Rubio NU
vs
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Rubio NU 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno
The model makes it 46% Rubio NU, 25% draw, 29% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.90, Sportivo Luqueno 1.41.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Rubio NU's rating is built from 16 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Luqueno's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Rubio NU are 10th on 13 points from 16 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 16 points from 16 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Rubio NU are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Club Guarani.
- Sportivo Luqueno have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Libertad Asuncion.
- Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Luqueno 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NU.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rubio NU at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
- D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026
- D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
- W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
- L0-3Cerro Porteno10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani25 September 2026
What these results say
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 13 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
- 28 August 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 May 2026Rubio NU 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 July 2022Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
- 8 April 2022Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Intermedia
- 20 August 2019Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Rubio NUCopa Paraguay
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz32
Sportivo Luqueno
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rubio NU carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.23 for Sportivo Luqueno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Rubio NU and 1.41 for Sportivo Luqueno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubio NU rate 0.54 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Luqueno rate 0.61 and 2.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Luqueno, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rubio NU the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.41 for Sportivo Luqueno. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.16 for Sportivo Luqueno.
How the model reaches 46% for Rubio NU to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rubio NU to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Rubio NU's ratings take away 29 points and Sportivo Luqueno's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Rubio NU's ratings15%−29
- Sportivo Luqueno's ratings46%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rubio NU at home · Sportivo Luqueno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 16, Sportivo Luqueno 16.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rubio NU
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Libertad Asuncion18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- at Nacional Asuncion25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 11%
- vs Cerro Porteno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
Sportivo Luqueno
- vs 2 de Mayo15 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- at Sportivo Ameliano18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- vs Olimpia25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- at Deportivo Recoleta29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.