Clausura - 19 · 7 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Club Guarani vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Our model says: Club Guarani 1–0 Olimpia

The model makes it 35% Club Guarani, 30% draw, 35% Olimpia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Club Guarani 1.21, Olimpia 1.21.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,192 settled matches.

A tight game: Club Guarani and Olimpia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Club Guarani's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Olimpia's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Club Guarani are 6th on 28 points from 17 games; Olimpia are top on 36 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Club Guarani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
  • Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cerro Porteno.
  • Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Olimpia 1–1 Club Guarani.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Club Guarani vs Olimpia

50%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Club Guarani win Draw Olimpia win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 0–110%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Club Guarani first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Guarani at 35%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Club Guarani vs Olimpia

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
  • D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026

Olimpia

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
  • W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Rubio NU11 October 2026
  • D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026

What these results say

  • Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
  • Olimpia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Olimpia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Club Guarani177731914+528
1Olimpia1711333012+1836

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Club Guarani

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 53%
Draw 31%
Defeat 20%

Olimpia

Chance to win the league · 94% today

Win 99%
Draw 94%
Defeat 90%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Olimpia

  • 2 September 2026Olimpia 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 21 March 2026Club Guarani 0–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 25 January 2026Olimpia 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 26 October 2025Olimpia 1–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 10 August 2025Club Guarani 4–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 6 April 2025Club Guarani 2–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Olimpia

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • A. Alcaraz71
  • S. Quintana41
  • H. Sandoval40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olimpia (first, with Club Guarani sixth), while our numbers lean to Club Guarani. Club Guarani rate 0.63 in attack and 1.18 in defence, Olimpia 0.85 and 1.18 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 0.4% chance of the title and Olimpia 94%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Club Guarani v Olimpia has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Club Guarani's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Club Guarani win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Olimpia win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Guarani Olimpia
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.85
1.18 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.18
1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Club Guarani against 1.21 for Olimpia. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.18 for Olimpia.

Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.69 for Olimpia. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 35% for Club Guarani to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Club Guarani's ratings take away 5 points and Olimpia's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Club Guarani's ratings38%−5
  5. Olimpia's ratings35%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Club GuaraniOlimpia
17Matches17
7W 7D 3LRecord11W 3D 3L
19 1.1 per gameGoals scored30 1.8 per game
14 0.8 per gameGoals conceded12 0.7 per game
8 of 17Clean sheets7 of 17
3 of 17Failed to score4 of 17
1 of 1Penalties scored–
28 1.6 per gameYellow cards38 2.2 per game
4-1-4-1 10×Usual shape4-1-3-2 5×

Club Guarani at home · Olimpia away

9Played9
3W 3D 3LRecord6W 1D 2L
11–11Goals for – against13–7
2 of 9Clean sheets4 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 17, Olimpia 17.

Club Guarani scored 122435
Olimpia conceded 023052

Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Olimpia have let in 2 there.

Olimpia scored 337368
Club Guarani conceded 024433

Olimpia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Club Guarani have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Club Guarani

Olimpia

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.