Stenhousemuir
vs
Livingston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Livingston
The model makes it 46% Stenhousemuir, 28% draw, 26% Livingston — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.50, Livingston 0.99.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Stenhousemuir are top on 22 points from 9 games; Livingston are 4th on 13 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Stenhousemuir have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inverness CT.
- Livingston have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Partick.
- Last 6 meetings: Livingston 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended Livingston 0–1 Stenhousemuir.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stenhousemuir vs Livingston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stenhousemuir at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Livingston
Stenhousemuir
- L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd25 September 2026
- W1-0Arbroath19 September 2026
- W1-0Partick15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Livingston4 September 2026
Livingston
- L1-2Partick10 October 2026
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stenhousemuir had two goals or fewer.
- Stenhousemuir won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livingston scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Livingston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Livingston had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 4 | Livingston | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Livingston
- 4 September 2026Livingston 0–1 StenhousemuirChampionship
- 25 July 2026Stenhousemuir 0–0 LivingstonLeague Cup
- 21 January 2023Stenhousemuir 1–3 LivingstonFA Cup
- 10 November 2020Stenhousemuir 0–4 LivingstonLeague Cup
- 15 April 2017Stenhousemuir 0–1 LivingstonLeague One
- 21 March 2017Livingston 1–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stenhousemuir carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.21 for Livingston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.99 for Livingston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stenhousemuir rate 0.47 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Livingston rate 0.54 and 1.96.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stenhousemuir a 32.8% chance of the title and Livingston 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stenhousemuir against 0.99 for Livingston. Stenhousemuir's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.96 for Livingston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stenhousemuir at home · Livingston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stenhousemuir 9, Livingston 10.
Stenhousemuir score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Livingston have let in 3 there.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stenhousemuir have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stenhousemuir
- at Morton7 Nov · Championshipwin 53%
- vs Queen's Park14 Nov · Championshipwin 64%
Livingston
- at Inverness CT7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Morton14 Nov · Championshipwin 70%
- at Queen's Park21 Nov · Championshipwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.