Raja Casablanca
vs
Ittihad Tanger
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Raja Casablanca 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
The model makes it 43% Raja Casablanca, 31% draw, 26% Ittihad Tanger — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Raja Casablanca 1.22, Ittihad Tanger 0.84.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Raja Casablanca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Raja Casablanca's rating is built from 33 Botola Pro matches and Ittihad Tanger's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 521 matches.
Key facts
- Raja Casablanca are 10th on 5 points from 3 games; Ittihad Tanger are 5th on 7 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Raja Casablanca are unbeaten in their last 3 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to FUS Rabat.
- Ittihad Tanger have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Maghreb Fès.
- Last 5 meetings: Raja Casablanca 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Raja Casablanca.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raja Casablanca at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger
Raja Casablanca
Botola Pro
- D1-1away to FUS Rabat13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Maghreb Fès8 October 2026
- W1-0CR Khemis Zemamra3 October 2026
Ittihad Tanger
Botola Pro
- W2-1Maghreb Fès14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Kawkab Marrakech10 October 2026
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
What these results say
- Ittihad Tanger scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ittihad Tanger conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Ittihad Tanger.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger
- 28 June 2026Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 22 February 2026Raja Casablanca 2–0 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 23 January 2025Raja Casablanca 1–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 25 September 2024Ittihad Tanger 3–1 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
- 28 May 2024Ittihad Tanger 1–2 Raja CasablancaBotola Pro
The two sides
Raja Casablanca carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.35 for Ittihad Tanger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Raja Casablanca and 0.84 for Ittihad Tanger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raja Casablanca rate 0.61 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ittihad Tanger rate 0.59 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ittihad Tanger, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raja Casablanca the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Raja Casablanca against 0.84 for Ittihad Tanger. Raja Casablanca's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.62 for Ittihad Tanger.
How the model reaches 43% for Raja Casablanca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Raja Casablanca to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Raja Casablanca's ratings take away 16 points and Ittihad Tanger's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage37%+2
- Raja Casablanca's ratings21%−16
- Ittihad Tanger's ratings43%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Raja Casablanca at home · Ittihad Tanger away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Raja CasablancaIttihad Tanger
Raja Casablanca are 10th after 3 Botola Pro matches (between 5th and 6th so far); Ittihad Tanger are 5th after 4 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Raja Casablanca 3, Ittihad Tanger 4.
Raja Casablanca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Ittihad Tanger have let in 0 there.
Ittihad Tanger score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Raja Casablanca have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.