FAR Rabat
vs
Difaa EL Jadida
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: FAR Rabat 2–1 Difaa EL Jadida
The model makes it 50% FAR Rabat, 25% draw, 25% Difaa EL Jadida — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FAR Rabat 1.95, Difaa EL Jadida 1.24.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to FAR Rabat: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FAR Rabat's rating is built from 32 Botola Pro matches and Difaa EL Jadida's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 521 matches.
Key facts
- FAR Rabat are 11th on 4 points from 2 games; Difaa EL Jadida are 9th on 6 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Difaa EL Jadida have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Moghreb Tetouan.
- Last 6 meetings: FAR Rabat 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended FAR Rabat 1–1 Difaa EL Jadida.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FAR Rabat at 50% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida
FAR Rabat
Botola Pro
- D2-2away to Hassania Agadir12 October 2026
- W1-0Widad Témara8 October 2026
Difaa EL Jadida
Botola Pro
- W4-1Moghreb Tetouan17 October 2026
- W5-2away to Amal Tiznit10 October 2026
- L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
- L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026
What these results say
- Difaa EL Jadida conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Difaa EL Jadida scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Difaa EL Jadida had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FAR Rabat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Difaa EL Jadida | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida
- 9 September 2026FAR Rabat 1–1 Difaa EL JadidaFriendlies Clubs
- 4 June 2026FAR Rabat 2–1 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 2 November 2025Difaa EL Jadida 0–4 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 26 January 2025FAR Rabat 1–0 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 2 October 2024Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 FAR RabatBotola Pro
- 4 March 2023Difaa EL Jadida 0–1 FAR RabatBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FAR Rabat carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.32 for Difaa EL Jadida. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for FAR Rabat and 1.24 for Difaa EL Jadida. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FAR Rabat rate 0.69 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.74 and 2.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Difaa EL Jadida, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FAR Rabat the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FAR Rabat against 1.24 for Difaa EL Jadida. FAR Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/2.28 for Difaa EL Jadida.
How the model reaches 50% for FAR Rabat to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for FAR Rabat to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, FAR Rabat's ratings take away 16 points and Difaa EL Jadida's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage37%+2
- FAR Rabat's ratings21%−16
- Difaa EL Jadida's ratings50%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.