Maghreb Fès
vs
FUS Rabat
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Maghreb Fès 1–0 FUS Rabat
The model makes it 48% Maghreb Fès, 31% draw, 21% FUS Rabat — fair odds of 2.08, 3.23 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Maghreb Fès 1.28, FUS Rabat 0.68.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Maghreb Fès: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Maghreb Fès's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and FUS Rabat's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Maghreb Fès are 5th on 7 points from 4 games; FUS Rabat are 15th on 2 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Maghreb Fès have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Ittihad Tanger.
- FUS Rabat have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Raja Casablanca.
- Last 6 meetings: Maghreb Fès 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 June 2026, ended FUS Rabat 1–1 Maghreb Fès.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maghreb Fès at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat
Maghreb Fès
Botola Pro
- L1-2away to Ittihad Tanger14 October 2026
- D0-0Raja Casablanca8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hassania Agadir3 October 2026
- W2-1CR Khemis Zemamra27 September 2026
FUS Rabat
Botola Pro
- D1-1Raja Casablanca13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Moghreb Tetouan9 October 2026
- L0-1Amal Tiznit2 October 2026
- L1-2away to UTS Rabat26 September 2026
What these results say
- Maghreb Fès scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Maghreb Fès conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Maghreb Fès had three goals or more.
- FUS Rabat did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FUS Rabat conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FUS Rabat had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 | FUS Rabat | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat
- 12 June 2026FUS Rabat 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 24 January 2026Maghreb Fès 4–2 FUS RabatBotola Pro
- 12 April 2025Maghreb Fès 1–0 FUS RabatBotola Pro
- 25 November 2024FUS Rabat 1–1 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
- 10 February 2024Maghreb Fès 1–2 FUS RabatBotola Pro
- 3 September 2023FUS Rabat 0–0 Maghreb FèsBotola Pro
The two sides
Maghreb Fès carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.23 for FUS Rabat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.68 for FUS Rabat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maghreb Fès rate 0.62 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FUS Rabat rate 0.48 and 1.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maghreb Fès the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Maghreb Fès against 0.68 for FUS Rabat. Maghreb Fès's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.67 for FUS Rabat.
How the model reaches 48% for Maghreb Fès to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Maghreb Fès to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Maghreb Fès's ratings take away 15 points and FUS Rabat's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage37%+2
- Maghreb Fès's ratings22%−15
- FUS Rabat's ratings48%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Maghreb Fès at home · FUS Rabat away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Maghreb FèsFUS Rabat
Maghreb Fès are 5th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 4th so far); FUS Rabat are 15th after 4 (between 14th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Maghreb Fès 4, FUS Rabat 4.
Maghreb Fès score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); FUS Rabat have let in 0 there.
FUS Rabat score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Maghreb Fès have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.