Oldham
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Oldham 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday
The model makes it 31% Oldham, 27% draw, 42% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.33, Sheffield Wednesday 1.65.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Sheffield Wednesday: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Oldham's rating is built from 58 League Two matches and Sheffield Wednesday's from 11 League One matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Oldham are 20th in League Two on 12 points from 12 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 8th in League One on 18 points from 11 games.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barnet.
- Sheffield Wednesday have won 1 of their last 5 League One games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Doncaster.
- Last 4 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Oldham 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Oldham30%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Sheffield Wednesday45%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Wednesday at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday
Oldham
League Two
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
- W4-1Cheltenham17 October 2026
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
Sheffield Wednesday
League One
- L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026
- W5-0AFC Wimbledon17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Huddersfield10 October 2026
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
What these results say
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Oldham | League Two | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | League One | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 18 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 1 August 2026Oldham 4–0 Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
- 13 August 2012Oldham 2–4 Sheffield WednesdayLeague Cup
- 9 April 2012Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 OldhamLeague One
- 10 December 2011Oldham 0–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
Leading scorers: Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oldham carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.4 for Sheffield Wednesday. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Oldham and 1.65 for Sheffield Wednesday. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oldham rate 0.50 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.67 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Oldham against 1.65 for Sheffield Wednesday. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.64 for Sheffield Wednesday.
How the model reaches 42% for Sheffield Wednesday to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Oldham's ratings add 38 points and Sheffield Wednesday's ratings take away 25 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Oldham's ratings67%+38
- Sheffield Wednesday's ratings42%−25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oldham at home · Sheffield Wednesday away
League matches only, this season — Oldham in the League Two, Sheffield Wednesday in the League One. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Oldham 12 in the League Two, Sheffield Wednesday 11 in the League One.
Sheffield Wednesday score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Oldham have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oldham
- at Shrewsbury14 Nov · League Twowin 37%
- vs Exeter City21 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Rotherham28 Nov · League Twowin 41%
- vs Bristol Rovers1 Dec · League Twowin 44%
Sheffield Wednesday
- vs Plymouth14 Nov · League Onewin 46%
- at Barnsley20 Nov · League Onewin 46%
- at Stevenage24 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- vs Reading28 Nov · League Onewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.