Difaa EL Jadida
vs
UTS Rabat
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Difaa EL Jadida 1–2 UTS Rabat
The model makes it 36% Difaa EL Jadida, 27% draw, 37% UTS Rabat — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Difaa EL Jadida 1.43, UTS Rabat 1.46.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 919 settled matches.
A tight game: Difaa EL Jadida and UTS Rabat are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Difaa EL Jadida's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and UTS Rabat's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Difaa EL Jadida are 7th on 6 points from 4 games; UTS Rabat are 6th on 7 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Difaa EL Jadida have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Moghreb Tetouan.
- UTS Rabat have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to CODM Meknès.
- Last 6 meetings: Difaa EL Jadida 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 June 2026, ended UTS Rabat 1–2 Difaa EL Jadida.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat
Has the model earned this number?
It puts UTS Rabat at 37% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat
Difaa EL Jadida
- W4-1Moghreb Tetouan17 October 2026
- W5-2away to Amal Tiznit10 October 2026
- L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
- L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026
UTS Rabat
- L0-1away to CODM Meknès17 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Widad Témara2 October 2026
- W2-1FUS Rabat26 September 2026
What these results say
- Difaa EL Jadida conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Difaa EL Jadida scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Difaa EL Jadida had three goals or more.
- 3 of these 4 matches for UTS Rabat had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | UTS Rabat | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat
- 25 June 2026UTS Rabat 1–2 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 14 February 2026Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 UTS RabatBotola Pro
- 27 February 2025Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 UTS RabatBotola Pro
- 26 October 2024UTS Rabat 2–2 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 29 January 2023UTS Rabat 2–1 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 2 September 2022Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 UTS RabatBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Difaa EL Jadida carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.35 for UTS Rabat. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Difaa EL Jadida and 1.46 for UTS Rabat. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.74 in attack and 2.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; UTS Rabat rate 0.57 and 1.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives UTS Rabat the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Difaa EL Jadida against 1.46 for UTS Rabat. Difaa EL Jadida's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.56 for UTS Rabat.
Season stats
Difaa EL Jadida at home · UTS Rabat away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Difaa EL JadidaUTS Rabat
Difaa EL Jadida are 7th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 7th and 16th so far); UTS Rabat are 5th after 4 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Difaa EL Jadida 4, UTS Rabat 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Difaa EL Jadida
- at FAR Rabat8 Nov · Botola Prowin 25%
UTS Rabat
- vs Amal Tiznit6 Nov · Botola Prowin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.