Moghreb Tetouan
vs
Widad Témara
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Moghreb Tetouan 0–1 Widad Témara
The model makes it 31% Moghreb Tetouan, 33% draw, 36% Widad Témara — fair odds of 3.23, 3.03 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Moghreb Tetouan 0.90, Widad Témara 1.03.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Moghreb Tetouan's rating is built from 4 Botola Pro matches and Widad Témara's from 4, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Moghreb Tetouan are 14th on 3 points from 4 games; Widad Témara are 13th on 3 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- Moghreb Tetouan have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Difaa EL Jadida.
- Widad Témara are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kawkab Marrakech.
- Last 2 meetings: Moghreb Tetouan 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Widad Témara.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Moghreb Tetouan vs Widad Témara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Widad Témara at 36% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Moghreb Tetouan vs Widad Témara
Moghreb Tetouan
- L1-4away to Difaa EL Jadida17 October 2026
- D0-0FUS Rabat9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ittihad Tanger2 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane27 September 2026
Widad Témara
- L0-1Kawkab Marrakech18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FAR Rabat8 October 2026
- L0-1UTS Rabat2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Wydad AC26 September 2026
What these results say
- Moghreb Tetouan did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Moghreb Tetouan had two goals or fewer.
- Widad Témara conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Widad Témara failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Widad Témara failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Moghreb Tetouan | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Widad Témara | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Moghreb Tetouan vs Widad Témara
- 8 March 2026Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Widad TémaraBotola 2
- 11 October 2025Widad Témara 1–3 Moghreb TetouanBotola 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Moghreb Tetouan carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.27 for Widad Témara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Moghreb Tetouan and 1.03 for Widad Témara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Moghreb Tetouan rate 0.44 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Widad Témara rate 0.51 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,088 correct results out of 4,337 settled predictions (48%), with 440 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Widad Témara the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Moghreb Tetouan against 1.03 for Widad Témara. Moghreb Tetouan's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.64 for Widad Témara.
Season stats
Moghreb Tetouan at home · Widad Témara away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Moghreb TetouanWidad Témara
Moghreb Tetouan are 13th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 5th and 13th so far); Widad Témara are 12th after 4 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Moghreb Tetouan 4, Widad Témara 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Moghreb Tetouan
- at Wydad AC31 Oct · Botola Prowin 27%
- vs CODM Meknès7 Nov · Botola Prowin 29%
Widad Témara
- vs Maghreb Fès1 Nov · Botola Prowin 26%
- at CR Khemis Zemamra8 Nov · Botola Prowin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.