Radomlje
vs
Celje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Radomlje 1–2 Celje
The model makes it 24% Radomlje, 24% draw, 52% Celje — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Radomlje 1.21, Celje 2.01.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: Celje are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Radomlje's rating is built from 45 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Celje's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Radomlje are bottom on 7 points from 11 games; Celje are 6th on 16 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Radomlje have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bravo.
- Celje are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Maribor.
- Last 5 meetings: Celje 5 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Radomlje 1–3 Celje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radomlje vs Celje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celje at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Radomlje vs Celje
Radomlje
1. SNL
- D2-2away to Bravo17 October 2026
- D3-3Koper10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brinje-Grosuplje20 September 2026
- L0-3Maribor13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Nafta4 September 2026
Celje
1. SNL
- D0-0away to Maribor18 October 2026
- W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mura20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo12 September 2026
- L0-1Koper6 September 2026
What these results say
- Radomlje did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Radomlje had three goals or more.
- Celje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celje had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Radomlje | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 7 |
| 6 | Celje | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomlje vs Celje
- 11 April 2026Radomlje 1–3 Celje1. SNL
- 4 February 2026Celje 3–1 Radomlje1. SNL
- 5 October 2025Radomlje 0–3 Celje1. SNL
- 27 July 2025Celje 2–0 Radomlje1. SNL
- 21 April 2025Radomlje 1–3 Celje1. SNL
The two sides
Radomlje carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.63 for Celje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Radomlje and 2.01 for Celje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomlje rate 0.63 in attack and 2.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celje rate 0.76 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radomlje a 0% chance of the title and Celje 20.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Radomlje against 2.01 for Celje. Radomlje's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.18 for Celje.
How the model reaches 52% for Celje to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celje to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Radomlje's ratings add 37 points and Celje's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Radomlje's ratings66%+37
- Celje's ratings52%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radomlje at home · Celje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Radomlje 11, Celje 11.
Radomlje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Celje have let in 3 there.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Radomlje have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Radomlje
- at Olimpija Ljubljana21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 17%
- vs Nafta28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 36%
Celje
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.