Bravo
vs
Maribor
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Bravo 0–1 Maribor
The model makes it 35% Bravo, 29% draw, 36% Maribor — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bravo 1.21, Maribor 1.25.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Bravo and Maribor are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bravo's rating is built from 46 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Maribor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bravo are 3rd on 19 points from 12 games; Maribor are top on 24 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
- Bravo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Radomlje.
- Maribor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Celje.
- Last 6 meetings: Maribor 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Maribor 3–1 Bravo.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bravo vs Maribor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maribor at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bravo vs Maribor
Bravo
1. SNL
- D2-2Radomlje17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nafta11 October 2026
- W2-1Olimpija Ljubljana20 September 2026
- W2-1Celje12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminij5 September 2026
Maribor
1. SNL
- D0-0Celje18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026
- D2-2Aluminij19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Radomlje13 September 2026
- D1-1Mura6 September 2026
What these results say
- Bravo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maribor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maribor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bravo | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 1 | Maribor | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bravo vs Maribor
- 23 August 2026Maribor 3–1 Bravo1. SNL
- 26 April 2026Bravo 3–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 22 February 2026Maribor 2–0 Bravo1. SNL
- 1 November 2025Bravo 2–3 Maribor1. SNL
- 16 August 2025Maribor 3–3 Bravo1. SNL
- 13 April 2025Bravo 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
The two sides
Bravo carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.59 for Maribor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Bravo and 1.25 for Maribor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bravo rate 0.62 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maribor rate 0.71 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bravo a 4.4% chance of the title and Maribor 40%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maribor the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bravo against 1.25 for Maribor. Bravo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.2 for Maribor.
How the model reaches 36% for Maribor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Maribor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Bravo's ratings add 22 points and Maribor's ratings take away 15 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Bravo's ratings51%+22
- Maribor's ratings36%−15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bravo at home · Maribor away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Bravo 12, Maribor 12.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bravo
- at Mura21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 41%
- vs Aluminij28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 48%
- at Celje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 20%
Maribor
- vs Nafta21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 53%
- at Mura28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 50%
- vs Radomlje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 66%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.