Arka Gdynia
vs
Podbeskidzie
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Arka Gdynia 1–0 Podbeskidzie
The model makes it 41% Arka Gdynia, 29% draw, 30% Podbeskidzie — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arka Gdynia 1.33, Podbeskidzie 1.06.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Arka Gdynia's rating is built from 11 Polish I Liga matches and Podbeskidzie's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Arka Gdynia are 15th on 11 points from 11 games; Podbeskidzie are 16th on 11 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lechia Gdansk.
- Podbeskidzie have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ŁKS Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Arka Gdynia 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2024, ended Podbeskidzie 0–0 Arka Gdynia.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arka Gdynia at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
Arka Gdynia
I Liga
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
- L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
Podbeskidzie
I Liga
- L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
What these results say
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbeskidzie failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
- 3 May 2024Podbeskidzie 0–0 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 4 November 2023Arka Gdynia 1–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 12 November 2022Arka Gdynia 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 17 July 2022Podbeskidzie 0–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 13 May 2022Podbeskidzie 1–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 5 November 2021Arka Gdynia 1–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arka Gdynia carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.23 for Podbeskidzie. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.06 for Podbeskidzie. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arka Gdynia rate 0.48 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Podbeskidzie rate 0.49 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arka Gdynia a 0.1% chance of the title and Podbeskidzie 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arka Gdynia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Arka Gdynia against 1.06 for Podbeskidzie. Arka Gdynia's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.7 for Podbeskidzie.
How the model reaches 41% for Arka Gdynia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arka Gdynia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Arka Gdynia's ratings take away 29 points and Podbeskidzie's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Arka Gdynia's ratings15%−29
- Podbeskidzie's ratings41%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arka Gdynia at home · Podbeskidzie away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Arka Gdynia 11, Podbeskidzie 11.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arka Gdynia
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 22%
- vs Ruch Chorzów28 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- at Stal Mielec5 Dec · I Ligawin 32%
Podbeskidzie
- vs Nieciecza23 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
- at Polonia Warszawa5 Dec · I Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.