Nieciecza
vs
Chrobry Głogów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Nieciecza 1–0 Chrobry Głogów
The model makes it 50% Nieciecza, 27% draw, 23% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nieciecza 1.70, Chrobry Głogów 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Nieciecza's rating is built from 11 Polish I Liga matches and Chrobry Głogów's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nieciecza are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games; Chrobry Głogów are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Nieciecza are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Chrobry Głogów have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Polonia Bytom.
- Last 6 meetings: Nieciecza 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 December 2024, ended Nieciecza 3–2 Chrobry Głogów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nieciecza at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów
Nieciecza
I Liga
- W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
- D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026
- W1-0Odra Opole19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Mielec14 September 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk4 September 2026
Chrobry Głogów
I Liga
- L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
- L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
What these results say
- Nieciecza went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chrobry Głogów did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chrobry Głogów conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nieciecza | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów
- 7 December 2024Nieciecza 3–2 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 27 July 2024Chrobry Głogów 0–4 NiecieczaI Liga
- 18 February 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 5 August 2023Chrobry Głogów 0–5 NiecieczaI Liga
- 4 March 2023Chrobry Głogów 0–2 NiecieczaI Liga
- 11 August 2022Nieciecza 3–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nieciecza carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.24 for Chrobry Głogów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Nieciecza and 1.01 for Chrobry Głogów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nieciecza rate 0.62 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chrobry Głogów rate 0.50 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nieciecza a 13.2% chance of the title and Chrobry Głogów 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nieciecza the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Nieciecza against 1.01 for Chrobry Głogów. Nieciecza's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.69 for Chrobry Głogów.
How the model reaches 50% for Nieciecza to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nieciecza to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nieciecza's ratings take away 24 points and Chrobry Głogów's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nieciecza's ratings20%−24
- Chrobry Głogów's ratings50%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nieciecza at home · Chrobry Głogów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Nieciecza 11, Chrobry Głogów 11.
Nieciecza score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 1 there.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Nieciecza have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nieciecza
- at Podbeskidzie23 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Stal Rzeszów28 Nov · I Ligawin 57%
- at Polonia Bytom5 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
Chrobry Głogów
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice20 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Unia Skierniewice28 Nov · I Ligawin 48%
- at Lechia Gdansk5 Dec · I Ligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.