Nafta
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Nafta 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana
The model makes it 36% Nafta, 31% draw, 33% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Nafta 1.17, Olimpija Ljubljana 1.10.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Nafta's rating is built from 14 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Olimpija Ljubljana's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nafta are 5th on 17 points from 12 games; Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th on 18 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
- Nafta have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mura.
- Olimpija Ljubljana have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aluminij.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Nafta.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nafta at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
1. SNL
- D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Koper19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 September 2026
- W3-1Radomlje4 September 2026
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL
- W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
What these results say
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nafta | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
- 21 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 12 April 2025Nafta 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 16 February 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 19 October 2024Nafta 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 5 August 2024Olimpija Ljubljana 2–0 Nafta1. SNL
- 8 March 2023Nafta 1–3 Olimpija LjubljanaCup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nafta carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.51 for Olimpija Ljubljana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Nafta and 1.10 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nafta rate 0.57 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpija Ljubljana rate 0.63 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olimpija Ljubljana, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nafta a 1.5% chance of the title and Olimpija Ljubljana 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nafta the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Nafta against 1.10 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Nafta's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.26 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
How the model reaches 36% for Nafta to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nafta to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nafta's ratings take away 22 points and Olimpija Ljubljana's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nafta's ratings22%−22
- Olimpija Ljubljana's ratings36%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nafta at home · Olimpija Ljubljana away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Nafta 12, Olimpija Ljubljana 12.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Olimpija Ljubljana have let in 2 there.
Olimpija Ljubljana score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nafta have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nafta
- at Maribor21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 20%
- at Radomlje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 56%
Olimpija Ljubljana
- vs Radomlje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 61%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 45%
- vs Koper5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.