Brinje-Grosuplje
vs
Aluminij
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Brinje-Grosuplje 2–1 Aluminij
The model makes it 37% Brinje-Grosuplje, 27% draw, 36% Aluminij — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brinje-Grosuplje 1.48, Aluminij 1.46.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Brinje-Grosuplje's rating is built from 12 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Aluminij's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Brinje-Grosuplje are 8th on 11 points from 12 games; Aluminij are 7th on 13 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
- Brinje-Grosuplje have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Koper.
- Aluminij are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Last 6 meetings: Aluminij 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Aluminij 4–2 Brinje-Grosuplje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brinje-Grosuplje at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL
- L0-5away to Koper18 October 2026
- L1-2Maribor11 October 2026
- W2-1Radomlje20 September 2026
- L1-2Nafta11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana5 September 2026
Aluminij
1. SNL
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Maribor19 September 2026
- W6-1away to Mura13 September 2026
- D0-0Bravo5 September 2026
What these results say
- Brinje-Grosuplje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Brinje-Grosuplje had three goals or more.
- Brinje-Grosuplje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 11 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij
- 21 August 2026Aluminij 4–2 Brinje-Grosuplje1. SNL
- 13 May 2026Brinje-Grosuplje 0–1 AluminijCup
- 12 May 2025Aluminij 4–2 Brinje-Grosuplje2. SNL
- 3 November 2024Brinje-Grosuplje 1–0 Aluminij2. SNL
- 11 March 2023Brinje-Grosuplje 0–2 Aluminij2. SNL
- 26 August 2022Aluminij 1–0 Brinje-Grosuplje2. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brinje-Grosuplje carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.33 for Aluminij. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.46 for Aluminij. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brinje-Grosuplje rate 0.57 in attack and 2.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aluminij rate 0.56 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aluminij, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brinje-Grosuplje a 0% chance of the title and Aluminij 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brinje-Grosuplje the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Brinje-Grosuplje against 1.46 for Aluminij. Brinje-Grosuplje's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.6 for Aluminij.
How the model reaches 37% for Brinje-Grosuplje to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Brinje-Grosuplje to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings take away 30 points and Aluminij's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings14%−30
- Aluminij's ratings37%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brinje-Grosuplje at home · Aluminij away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Brinje-Grosuplje 12, Aluminij 12.
Brinje-Grosuplje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Aluminij have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Brinje-Grosuplje
- at Celje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 11%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 28%
- at Nafta5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 20%
Aluminij
- vs Koper21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 30%
- at Bravo28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
- vs Mura5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.