Regular Season - 15 · 7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Koper vs Mura 1. SNL prediction

Bonifika, Koper

Our model says: Koper 2–0 Mura

The model makes it 68% Koper, 20% draw, 12% Mura — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Koper 2.47, Mura 0.80.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.

One-sided: Koper are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Koper's rating is built from 46 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Mura's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Koper are 2nd on 22 points from 12 games; Mura are 9th on 11 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
  • Koper are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Brinje-Grosuplje.
  • Mura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Nafta.
  • Last 6 meetings: Koper 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Mura 0–1 Koper.

More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions

All Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Koper vs Mura

51%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Koper win Draw Mura win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 3–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–18%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Koper first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 39%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Koper at 68% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Form going into Koper vs Mura

Koper

1. SNL

  • W5-0Brinje-Grosuplje18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026
  • W2-0Nafta19 September 2026
  • L1-3Olimpija Ljubljana12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Celje6 September 2026

Mura

1. SNL

  • D0-0Nafta17 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Olimpija Ljubljana10 October 2026
  • D0-0Celje20 September 2026
  • L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Koper scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Mura did not win any of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Koper126421911+822
9Mura122551324-1111

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Koper vs Mura

  • 22 August 2026Mura 0–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 3 May 2026Mura 0–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 1 March 2026Koper 3–0 Mura1. SNL
  • 7 November 2025Mura 3–2 Koper1. SNL
  • 23 August 2025Koper 2–1 Mura1. SNL
  • 25 May 2025Mura 1–3 Koper1. SNL

The two sides

Koper carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.17 for Mura. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for Koper and 0.80 for Mura. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Koper rate 0.77 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mura rate 0.51 and 1.97.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Koper a 28.3% chance of the title and Mura 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Koper the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Koper against 0.80 for Mura. Koper's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.97 for Mura.

How the model reaches 68% for Koper to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Koper to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Koper's ratings take away 13 points and Mura's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 68%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Koper's ratings31%−13
  4. Mura's ratings68%+37

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

KoperMura
12Matches12
6W 4D 2LRecord2W 5D 5L
19 1.6 per gameGoals scored13 1.1 per game
11 0.9 per gameGoals conceded24 2.0 per game
7 of 12Clean sheets3 of 12
2 of 12Failed to score4 of 12
3 of 4Penalties scored–
31 2.6 per gameYellow cards34 2.8 per game
1Red cards1

Koper at home · Mura away

5Played6
2W 2D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L
10–5Goals for – against10–14
3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. SNL matches this season: Koper 12, Mura 12.

Koper scored 350327
Mura conceded 225627

Koper score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Mura have let in 7 there.

Mura scored 122152
Koper conceded 311321

Mura score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Koper have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Koper

  • at Aluminij21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 42%
  • vs Celje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 41%
  • at Olimpija Ljubljana5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 32%

Mura

  • vs Bravo21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 31%
  • vs Maribor28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 23%
  • at Aluminij5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 22%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.