Koper
vs
Aluminij
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Koper 2–0 Aluminij
The model makes it 58% Koper, 24% draw, 18% Aluminij — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Koper 2.04, Aluminij 0.92.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Koper: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Koper's rating is built from 49 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Aluminij's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Koper are top on 29 points from 15 games; Aluminij are 7th on 17 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Koper are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mura.
- Aluminij have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Brinje-Grosuplje.
- Last 6 meetings: Koper 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended Aluminij 0–1 Koper.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Koper vs Aluminij
Has the model earned this number?
Koper at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Koper vs Aluminij
Koper
1. SNL
- D1-1Mura7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Bravo2 November 2026
- W4-0Maribor27 October 2026
- W5-0Brinje-Grosuplje18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026
Aluminij
1. SNL
- L0-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje8 November 2026
- W5-0Radomlje31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nafta28 October 2026
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
What these results say
- Koper went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Koper scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Koper had three goals or more.
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aluminij had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koper | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Koper
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 48% today
Aluminij
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Koper vs Aluminij
- 28 August 2026Aluminij 0–1 Koper1. SNL
- 9 May 2026Koper 1–0 Aluminij1. SNL
- 8 March 2026Aluminij 2–4 Koper1. SNL
- 22 November 2025Koper 4–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 29 August 2025Aluminij 1–0 Koper1. SNL
- 11 April 2024Koper 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Koper a 48.2% chance of the title and Aluminij 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Koper the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Koper against 0.92 for Aluminij. Koper's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.51 for Aluminij.
How the model reaches 58% for Koper to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Koper to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Koper's ratings add 8 points and Aluminij's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Koper's ratings52%+8
- Aluminij's ratings58%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Koper at home · Aluminij away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Koper 15, Aluminij 15.
Koper score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Aluminij have let in 4 there.
Aluminij score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Koper have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Koper
- vs Celje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 42%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 33%
- at Nafta30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 45%
- vs Radomlje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 75%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 52%
Aluminij
- at Bravo28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 26%
- vs Mura5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 53%
- vs Maribor30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Celje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 29%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.