Philadelphia Union
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Philadelphia Union 2–1 Toronto FC
The model makes it 58% Philadelphia Union, 21% draw, 21% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.44, Toronto FC 1.28.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Philadelphia Union: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Philadelphia Union's rating is built from 67 MLS matches and Toronto FC's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union are 6th on 46 points from 30 games; Toronto FC are 10th on 36 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Charlotte.
- Toronto FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to New York Red Bulls.
- Last 6 meetings: Toronto FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Toronto FC 3–3 Philadelphia Union.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 58% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
- D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Chicago Fire15 October 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer
- W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC14 October 2026
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 61 | 48 | +13 | 46 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC
- 22 April 2026Toronto FC 3–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 9 August 2025Philadelphia Union 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2025Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024Toronto FC 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2024Philadelphia Union 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2023Toronto FC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Philadelphia Union carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.47 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.44 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.28 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Philadelphia Union rate 0.92 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.68 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.28 for Toronto FC. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.45 for Toronto FC.
How the model reaches 58% for Philadelphia Union to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Philadelphia Union to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Philadelphia Union's ratings take away 9 points and Toronto FC's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Philadelphia Union's ratings35%−9
- Toronto FC's ratings58%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Philadelphia Union at home · Toronto FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Philadelphia Union 29, Toronto FC 29.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (16 goals); Toronto FC have let in 7 there.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.