UTS Rabat
vs
Amal Tiznit
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: UTS Rabat 1–0 Amal Tiznit
The model makes it 48% UTS Rabat, 28% draw, 24% Amal Tiznit — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: UTS Rabat 1.59, Amal Tiznit 0.96.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to UTS Rabat: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. UTS Rabat's rating is built from 36 Botola Pro matches and Amal Tiznit's from 6, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- UTS Rabat are 6th on 7 points from 4 games; Amal Tiznit are 11th on 4 points from 4 games — Botola Pro.
- UTS Rabat have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to CODM Meknès.
- Amal Tiznit have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wydad AC.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: UTS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit
Has the model earned this number?
It puts UTS Rabat at 48% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into UTS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit
UTS Rabat
Botola Pro
- L0-1away to CODM Meknès17 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane8 October 2026
- W1-0away to Widad Témara2 October 2026
- W2-1FUS Rabat26 September 2026
Amal Tiznit
Botola Pro
- D1-1away to Wydad AC18 October 2026
- L2-5Difaa EL Jadida10 October 2026
- W1-0away to FUS Rabat2 October 2026
- L1-3Ittihad Tanger24 September 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for UTS Rabat had two goals or fewer.
- Amal Tiznit scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Amal Tiznit failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Amal Tiznit conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UTS Rabat | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Amal Tiznit | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
UTS Rabat carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.15 for Amal Tiznit. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for UTS Rabat and 0.96 for Amal Tiznit. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
UTS Rabat rate 0.57 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amal Tiznit rate 0.55 and 2.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives UTS Rabat the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for UTS Rabat against 0.96 for Amal Tiznit. UTS Rabat's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.25 for Amal Tiznit.
How the model reaches 48% for UTS Rabat to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for UTS Rabat to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, UTS Rabat's ratings take away 20 points and Amal Tiznit's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage37%+2
- UTS Rabat's ratings17%−20
- Amal Tiznit's ratings48%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
UTS Rabat at home · Amal Tiznit away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
UTS RabatAmal Tiznit
UTS Rabat are 6th after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Amal Tiznit are 11th after 4 (between 7th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: UTS Rabat 4, Amal Tiznit 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.