Inter Miami
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Inter Miami 2–1 Charlotte
The model makes it 58% Inter Miami, 20% draw, 22% Charlotte — fair odds of 1.72, 5.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 2.73, Charlotte 1.50.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Inter Miami: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Inter Miami's rating is built from 70 MLS matches and Charlotte's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- Inter Miami are 2nd on 55 points from 30 games; Charlotte are 5th on 47 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Inter Miami are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atlanta United FC.
- Charlotte have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Philadelphia Union.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Charlotte 0–0 Inter Miami.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter Miami vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 58% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs Charlotte
Inter Miami
Major League Soccer
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026
- W2-0New York City FC14 October 2026
- W4-0DC United10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
Charlotte
Major League Soccer
- D2-2away to Philadelphia Union17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Columbus Crew14 October 2026
- W3-2FC Dallas10 October 2026
- L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
- W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
- Charlotte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | +22 | 55 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Charlotte
- 14 March 2026Charlotte 0–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 13 September 2025Charlotte 3–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Inter Miami 1–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2024Inter Miami 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024Charlotte 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023Charlotte 1–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Charlotte
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2512
- L. Suárez146
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno134
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.57 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.73 goals for Inter Miami and 1.50 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.12 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.76 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.50 for Charlotte. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.33 for Charlotte.
How the model reaches 58% for Inter Miami to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Inter Miami to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Inter Miami's ratings take away 4 points and Charlotte's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Inter Miami's ratings40%−4
- Charlotte's ratings58%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter Miami at home · Charlotte away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Inter Miami 29, Charlotte 29.
Inter Miami score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Charlotte have let in 9 there.
Charlotte score most often in the 16–30 minute window (11 goals); Inter Miami have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.