FC Cincinnati
vs
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Cincinnati 1–2 Nashville SC
The model makes it 22% FC Cincinnati, 22% draw, 56% Nashville SC — fair odds of 4.55, 4.55 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.28, Nashville SC 2.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Nashville SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Cincinnati's rating is built from 68 MLS matches and Nashville SC's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- FC Cincinnati are 8th on 39 points from 30 games; Nashville SC are top on 67 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- FC Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to DC United.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to San Jose Earthquakes.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Nashville SC 4–0 FC Cincinnati.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 56% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer
- W2-1DC United21 October 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew18 October 2026
- L2-3New England Revolution14 October 2026
- W3-1away to Atlanta United FC10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes18 October 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City15 October 2026
- W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 62 | 71 | -9 | 39 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | +41 | 67 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
- 30 August 2026Nashville SC 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 13 September 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2025Nashville SC 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 22 September 2024Nashville SC 2–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2024FC Cincinnati 0–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 5 August 2023FC Cincinnati 1–1 Nashville SCLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge171
- H. Mukhtar167
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.86 for Nashville SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.32 for Nashville SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.81 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nashville SC rate 0.85 and 0.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 2.32 for Nashville SC. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.86 for Nashville SC.
How the model reaches 56% for Nashville SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nashville SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, FC Cincinnati's ratings add 28 points and Nashville SC's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- FC Cincinnati's ratings59%+28
- Nashville SC's ratings56%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Cincinnati at home · Nashville SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Cincinnati 28, Nashville SC 29.
FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (22 goals); Nashville SC have let in 4 there.
Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.