Libertad Asuncion
vs
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Nacional Asuncion
The model makes it 33% Libertad Asuncion, 30% draw, 37% Nacional Asuncion — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 1.10, Nacional Asuncion 1.20.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,192 settled matches.
Edge to Nacional Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Libertad Asuncion's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Nacional Asuncion's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Libertad Asuncion are 4th on 30 points from 17 games; Nacional Asuncion are 2nd on 32 points from 18 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Nacional Asuncion have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Nacional Asuncion 3–0 Libertad Asuncion.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional Asuncion at 37%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
- W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026
- D2-2Club Guarani11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta5 October 2026
Nacional Asuncion
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
- L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta12 October 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nacional Asuncion had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Libertad Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
Nacional Asuncion
Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion
- 2 September 2026Nacional Asuncion 3–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 May 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 March 2026Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 3–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 19 July 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 11 April 2025Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera152
Nacional Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- H. Benítez66
- I. Valdez61
- L. Meza40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Libertad Asuncion a 1% chance of the title and Nacional Asuncion 3.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Libertad Asuncion v Nacional Asuncion has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Libertad Asuncion's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Libertad Asuncion win33%▲ +4
- Draw30%=
- Nacional Asuncion win37%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.20 for Nacional Asuncion. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.98 for Nacional Asuncion.
How the model reaches 37% for Nacional Asuncion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 5 points and Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Libertad Asuncion's ratings33%+5
- Nacional Asuncion's ratings37%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Libertad Asuncion at home · Nacional Asuncion away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 17, Nacional Asuncion 18.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Libertad Asuncion
- at Rubio NU18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
- vs 2 de Mayo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 47%
- at Sportivo Ameliano29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 38%
Nacional Asuncion
- vs Cerro Porteno18 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 51%
- vs Rubio NU25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 63%
- at 2 de Mayo29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.