Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-0 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Seattle Sounders, 28% draw, 30% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziD
- 16Alex RoldánD
- 25Jackson RagenD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 7Cristian RoldánM
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 17Paul ArriolaM
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 45Peter KingstonM
- 31Hassani DotsonM
- 13Jordan MorrisF
- 8Caden ClarkM
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 28Yeimar GómezD
- 35Antino LopezD
- 4Ryan SailorD
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2DeAndre YedlinD
- 26Philip QuintonD
- 3Kobi HenryD
- 11Dominik MarczukM
- 6Stijn SpieringsM
- 92Noel CaliskanM
- 29Sam JunquaM
- 34Luca MoisaF
- 9Morgan GuilavoguiF
- 22Sergi SolansF
- 12Saba LobzhanidzeM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 18Taylor BoothF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 76Liam O'GaraM
- 31Mason StajduharG
- 39Aiden HezarkhaniF
- 13Jason ShokalookF
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
- D0-0New York Red Bulls6 September 2026
- D2-2Chicago Fire29 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids30 August 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 43 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake
- 1 March 2026Real Salt Lake 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 12 October 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2025Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 30 May 2024Seattle Sounders 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 16 May 2024Real Salt Lake 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans144
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Seattle Sounders beat Real Salt Lake 2–0. The model had made a win for Seattle Sounders its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Musovski 48' for Seattle Sounders, A. Rusnak 73' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 0.91–0.43.
How the call on Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake has moved
First published on 10 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Real Salt Lake's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Seattle Sounders win42%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Real Salt Lake win30%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.