24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Serbia vs Greece UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Serbia 1-2 Greece.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Serbia, 30% draw, 40% Greece — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Greece at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Serbia3%Draw93%Greece4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Andrija Živkovićassist: Dušan Tadić
4'
🔁Mihajlo Cvetkovicout: Saša Lukić
45'
Dušan Tadić
63'
63'
🔁Charalampos Kostoulasout: Fotis Ioannidis
🔁Luka Jovicout: Dejan Joveljić
71'
🔁Filip Kostićout: Aleksa Terzić
71'
Aleksa Terzić
72'
74'
⚽Christos Tzolisassist: Vangelis Pavlidis
74'
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Andrews Tetteh
74'
🔁Konstantinos Karetsasout: Anastasios Douvikas
🔁Nikola Simićout: Nemanja Gudelj
81'
83'
Christos Zafeiris
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Petar Sukacev
90'
90+1'
🔁Konstantinos Mavropanosout: Giannis Michailidis
90+1'
🔁Christos Zafeirisout: Athanasios Androutsos
90+4'
⚽Anastasios Douvikasassist: Konstantinos Tsimikas

Match stats — Serbia vs Greece

39%Possession61%
9Shots26
4On target9
2Corners6

Line-ups

Serbia 4-4-2
  • 23V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 13N. SimićD
  • 16S. ErakovićD
  • 3S. PavlovićD
  • 11F. KostićD
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 5N. MaksimovićM
  • 20S. Milinković-SavićM
  • 18M. CvetkovićM
  • 8L. JovićF
  • 10D. TadićF
Substitutes
  • 15S. BabićD
  • 6N. GudeljM
  • 9D. JoveljićF
  • 19V. KostovM
  • 4V. DragojevićM
  • 22S. LukićM
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 21L. SamardžićM
  • 7A. StankovićM
Coach: V. Paunovic
Greece 4-4-2
  • 12K. TzolakisG
  • 2G. VagiannidisD
  • 4K. MavropanosD
  • 5P. RetsosD
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 6D. KourbelisM
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 10C. TzolisM
  • 11C. KostoulasF
  • 14V. PavlidisF
Substitutes
  • 8F. IoannidisF
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 22G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 13C. MandasG
  • 7G. MasourasF
  • 18G. MichailidisD
  • 23C. MouzakitisM
  • 17M. SaliakasD
  • 16A. TettehF
Coach: I. Jovanović

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Serbia400438-50
2Greece422053+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Greece won 2–1 at Serbia. The model had made a win for Greece its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Andrija Živković 4' for Serbia, Christos Tzolis 74' for Greece, Anastasios Douvikas 90+4' for Greece.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.