Norway vs Denmark UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Norway 3-2 Denmark.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Norway, 28% draw, 32% Denmark — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norway at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norway vs Denmark
Line-ups
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 14J. RyersonD
- 3K. AjerD
- 17T. HeggemD
- 7F. AursnesD
- 10M. ØdegaardM
- 8S. BergeM
- 6P. BergM
- 22Oscar BobbF
- 9E. HaalandF
- 20A. NusaF
- 2O. BjørtuftD
- 19T. AasgaardM
- 15O. Didrik BlombergM
- 23E. BotheimF
- 11J. Strand LarsenF
- 4L. ØstigårdD
- 16M. PedersenD
- 21A. SchjelderupF
- 13E. SelvikG
- 22F. JörgensenG
- 13R. KristensenD
- 2J. AndersenD
- 3O. ProvstgaardD
- 5J. MæhleD
- 21M. HjulmandM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 17P. DorguM
- 7Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 14M. DamsgaardM
- 9R. HøjlundF
- 11A. DaghimF
- 20A. GrønbækM
- 16M. HermansenG
- 19K. HøghF
- 4L. HøgsbergD
- 8G. IsaksenF
- 10T. JørgensenM
- 1A. JungdalG
- 6V. NelssonD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norway vs Denmark
- 8 June 2024Denmark 3–1 NorwayFriendlies
Leading scorers: Norway and Denmark
Norway
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland30
Denmark
GoalsAssists
- R. Højlund30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Norway beat Denmark 3–2. The model had made a win for Norway its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Oscar Bobb 14' for Norway, Erling Haaland 18' for Norway, Mikkel Damsgaard 25' for Denmark, Rasmus Hojlund 60' for Denmark, Erling Haaland 74' for Norway. Sent off: David Moller Wolfe (Norway) 90+3'.